China consumer, wholesale inflation tops estimates in April as Iran war drives energy costs higher
A customer walks past a Coach retail store inside a shopping mall in Shenzhen city, Guangdong province, China, on March 24, 2026.
Cheng Xin | Getty Images
Consumer and producer inflation in China rose more than expected in April as conflicts in the Middle East increased commodity costs.
Consumer prices rose 1.2% in April from a year earlier, beating economists’ forecasts of 0.9% growth in a Reuters poll and accelerating from a 1% rise in March, data published by the Office for National Statistics showed on Monday.
The producer price index rose 2.8% from a year ago, beating economists’ forecast of 1.6% and the previous month’s forecast for a 0.5% recovery. The increase came after ex-factory prices turned positive for the first time in more than three years, ending the longest deflationary streak in decades.
The increase in global commodity prices was helped by the increase in global commodity prices as the Iran war, which is in its third month, narrowed traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted energy markets.
China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, has cushioned the worst of the energy shock through its strategic oil stocks and diversified mix of renewable energy sources; But economists warn that the buffer will have its limits as the outage drags on.
Data released on Saturday showed China’s crude imports Down 20% in volume in April from a year ago.
However, the country’s overall export growth accelerated last month. increased by 14.1% compared to the previous year and monthly trade surplus $84.8 billion — putting the country on track for a third consecutive year of roughly trillion-dollar surplus.
China’s export power causing its trade surplus with the US to expand to $87.7 billion This issue so far this year will be in focus next week as US President Donald Trump prepares to visit Beijing for a leaders’ summit.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will host Trump this week as both countries try to stabilize relations strained by trade, export controls and the Taiwan and Iran war.
Goldman Sachs economists said Beijing, which hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi last week, is positioning itself as an active intermediary in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and they expect the Middle East conflict to feature prominently at the summit.
