China hits growth goal despite Trump tariffs turmoil
China’s economy grew 5% last year as record exports helped Beijing meet its annual growth target, according to Chinese government figures.
However, the data also showed that economic growth slowed to 4.5% in the last three months of 2025 compared to the previous year.
Beijing had set an economic growth target of “around 5 percent” in 2025 despite struggles to boost domestic spending, a protracted housing crisis and turmoil caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Although China’s official figures show that it has reached its growth target, some analysts cast doubt on the accuracy of the data.
“Title [gross domestic product] “The pressures were in line with the government’s target of 5% for 2025, we think growth is weaker than official figures indicate,” said Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics.
Huang added that his company’s own calculations suggest China’s official growth figures “overestimate the pace of economic expansion by at least 1.5 percentage points.”
China last week reported the world’s largest trade surplus (the value of goods and services sold abroad compared to its imports) at $1.19 trillion (£890 billion). This was due to an increase in exports to markets outside the United States.
Speaking on Monday, Kang Yi, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said the country’s economy “faces problems and challenges, including strong supply and weak demand” but “can maintain stable, solid growth momentum this year.”
China’s dependence on exports will likely be tested next year as the Trump administration continues to use tariffs as a key economic policy. The US president recently threatened to impose new taxes on countries that trade with Iran or oppose its plan to take control of Greenland.
In addition to China’s exporters moving away from the American market, lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs have helped China’s economic resilience after Beijing and Washington agreed to pause tariffs.
While Chinese manufacturers continue to increase exports, the country is struggling with some problems in its domestic economy.
Beijing is struggling with an ongoing real estate crisis and rising local government debt; This makes businesses more hesitant to invest and consumers cautious about spending.
New data on Monday showed house prices continued to fall in December as the government struggled to stabilize China’s real estate market. Prices fell by 2.7% last month compared to the previous year, the sharpest decline in the last five months. Real estate investment also fell by 17.2% last year.
“China’s reported GDP of 5% is unsurprising given the political incentives to ensure headline stability, but it clearly masks the dire investment data,” said Louise Loo, head of Asian economics at Oxford Economics.
Retail sales rose just 0.9% in December, the lowest rate in three years; However, the country’s factory production increased by 5.2% in December compared to the previous year, surpassing the 4.8% growth in November.
Chinese leaders have promised “proactive” fiscal policy this year, aiming to boost domestic spending and shift away from exports and investment.
Elsewhere, China’s demographic crisis continues to worsen, with its population declining for the fourth consecutive year.
The total number of people in China has decreased by 339 million to 1.41 billion in 2025, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. At the same time, the birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people.
China’s population is also rapidly aging, adding to the challenges facing Beijing’s leaders. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to leave the workforce over the next decade.
