China Ties, Trump’s Tariffs And Elections In Nepal And Bangladesh: What Lies Ahead For India | World News

New Delhi: Last year, global politics began to signal a shift that began to question the long-standing world order. There is a growing sense that the international system is moving into a new phase where major powers seek to change rules, alliances and influence.

In this changing landscape, India’s problem is its place in the world. Is the country merely adapting to global trends as they emerge, or has it reached a stage where it can actively decide outcomes and influence the direction of global policy?

On closer look, the general elections scheduled to be held in Bangladesh and Nepal in 2026 are not routine political events in the two countries. These polls are linked to the stability of South Asia, India’s security concerns and the broader balance of power in the region. Nepal will vote on March 5, 2026, while Bangladesh will go to the polls on February 12 the same year.

The question for New Delhi is whether it can strengthen a policy based on trust, cooperation and long-term partnership in its neighbourhood. The outcome of these elections will determine whether India will have the opportunity to restore strained relations or face further challenges along its borders.

Beyond South Asia, the war between Russia and Ukraine has spread far beyond Europe. Energy supply chains have become a global test of food safety and international norms. India has so far followed a path centered on dialogue, balance and strategic autonomy.

The challenge now is whether this approach will hold up over time, or whether a moment will come when India will be forced to take a clearer position.

India has consistently advocated a multipolar world order in which power is not concentrated in the hands of a few nations. The question is whether this idea can go beyond theory and take form in reality.

At the center of this debate is India’s relations with China. The two countries are economically interconnected but continue to be marred by border tensions and growing strategic insecurity. Communication channels are open but trust is fragile.

India’s foreign policy on the economic front is also entering a new phase. Efforts to conclude free trade agreements with more than one country are continuing. At the same time, despite their potential, trade relations with the United States face increasing tension.

India and the United States

When Donald Trump began his second term as US president early last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first four global leaders to meet him. In that meeting, he described the Indian prime minister as a very good friend. But in recent months, the warmth that marked interactions between them during the US president’s first term appears to have waned.

In this context, the Trump administration imposed two series of customs duties on India. One was linked to trade issues, while the other was linked to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Combined tariffs currently stand at 50 percent; This is the highest rate the US has imposed on any Asian country.

A 25 percent tariff was previously announced. This was followed by an additional 25 percent tax after India continued to buy Russian oil; This move caused great displeasure in Washington.

The most important question this year is in which direction India-US relations will progress. India’s trade negotiations with the European Union (EU) have made progress. Negotiations with Australia are progressing, agreements are already in place with New Zealand and Oman, and a deal has been completed with the United Kingdom.

If agreements with the EU and eventually the US are also implemented, this could bring much-needed stability to India. January is seen as a very important period, especially due to the proposed EU visit. Any movement on a trade deal during this time could set a positive tone for early 2026.

Politically, India’s biggest focus in 2026 will be its relations with the United States. Tensions have surfaced over New Delhi’s purchase of oil from Russia, and recent events have exposed the limits of diplomatic support. During the brief military conflict between India and Pakistan, New Delhi had hoped that its partners would openly support it, but this did not happen.

The United States is India’s largest trading partner, and it would be difficult to expand trade further without strong ties with Washington.

Elections in Bangladesh, Nepal

In recent years, India’s relations with both Bangladesh and Nepal have not been as comfortable as before. Elections in these countries raise the question of whether new governments can open the door to rebuilding trust and cooperation.

There is also the issue of whether India can use these political transitions to rebuild trust and strengthen ties between its neighbors. As for Pakistan, expectations for a major breakthrough in relations in 2026 are low and current dynamics are likely to continue.

The Bangladesh elections are particularly important for India, especially in light of concerns about incidents involving minorities there. New Delhi should make efforts to engage with whatever government comes to power. Although relations were strong during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, India made a strategic mistake by not engaging with opposition parties. A once close neighbor has moved away and it is very important to restore this relationship.

India’s ties with Nepal have also fluctuated over time. Public anger and negative sentiments towards India in Nepal must be addressed by New Delhi itself with consistent involvement.

India’s Broad Strategy

Despite challenging global conditions, India’s economic fundamentals remain relatively strong. Growth rates are healthy, per capita income is rising and the country represents a large market. At the same time, India cannot control global supply chains the way China does and lacks the ability to leverage trade in the same way.

There is a need for diversification in both foreign and trade policy. Relying too much on a single country can create vulnerabilities, while maintaining multiple partnerships provides resilience.

India’s diplomatic strength has always come from its ability to balance relations with Russia, the US or China.

Beijing cannot be ignored. Its increasing role in critical minerals, defense production and global supply chains makes it a central factor in regional stability. From a South Asian perspective, China’s expanding presence around India increases uncertainty and pressure.

India does not have the option of fully aligning with Russia and the US. The current American trade agenda, driven by the ‘Make America Great Again’ approach, has led to the imposition of tariffs everywhere, indiscriminately between allies and rivals.

Although Indian exporters have not suffered major losses so far, reducing tariffs through negotiations with the US before March is seen as critical.

China, Trump and a Multipolar Future

India should strive for long-term stability in its relations with China, while actively pushing for better market access to address the trade imbalance. Closer coordination between India, China and Russia has the potential to form the basis of a truly multipolar world.

At the same time, dealing with Donald Trump has become a decisive test of foreign policy for many countries. Managing his personality-focused approach is inevitable in the current environment. Failure to do so could put any country’s foreign policy under pressure.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, the United States has worked with allies including India, Europe, Japan and South Korea, particularly to balance China. The latest reception given to the Pakistani administration in Washington gives signs that relations between Washington and Islamabad are warming. However, such changes may not be permanent.

India has no official allies with either the US or Russia. It operates through strategic partnerships, a framework that looks particularly strong in the Biden years, including a 2023 state visit invitation to Prime Minister Modi.

After all, all global leaders have their own egos, but dealing with Trump is the toughest challenge. The question for India is not whether this should be done, but how well and for how long it can be managed.