China trade plummets and U.S. freight market enters recession watch

The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to impact the logistics and transportation industries; After breaking records earlier this year, imports are falling sharply at major ports and volumes are shifting throughout the supply chain.

According to the report, for the first time in 2025, pickup truck, flatbed and refrigerated cargo rates were lower on both a monthly and annual basis in October. DAT Truckload Volume Index.

“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we are seeing in the broader commodity economy, with shippers taking advantage of inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, chief of DAT Analytics. “As a result, the traditional busy holiday shipping season appears to be virtually non-existent this year,” Adamo said.

Van truck loads decreased by 3% compared to September and 11% on an annual basis. Refrigerated truck loads decreased by 2% monthly and 7% annually. Flatbed truck loads were down 4% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year. The reduced level of dry vans and temperature-controlled loads currently moving through the supply chain is to transport goods from distribution centers to retailers. The decline in trade ranges from weakness in housing and manufacturing to energy costs as shippers brought forward imports earlier in the year and built up inventories to cushion tariff impacts.

Latest US Census Bureau dataAfter a delay of more than a month due to the government shutdown, imports reported on Wednesday showed a significant decline in imports in August following the introduction of additional tariffs, $18.4 billion lower than the July import level. The decline in imports contributed to a more than 23% drop in the country’s trade deficit, according to Census.

Latest freight container tracking data shared by the Port of Long Beach, the nation’s second-busiest port, shows Trump’s tariffs will continue to reduce ocean shipping to the US

“You’re looking at a 16 percent decrease in imports coming into the United States from China,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “The decline is across the board,” Cordero said.

The Port of Los Angeles also saw a decrease in container volumes in October.

While electronics, furniture and toys were identified in this freight pullback, U.S. grain exports were also affected by trade policy as China increased its purchases of soybeans from Brazil during the trade war. China recently pledged to buy more U.S. soybeans as part of easing trade tensions.

The decline in containers follows a period of commercial frontloading in which retailers and manufacturers tried to beat multiple tariff deadlines and rate changes, bringing in freight early, leading to big jumps in port traffic. Global containers to the West Coast are up 10% year-over-year, according to Vizion. Containers from China to the US West Coast also increased 4.6% year over year; The most popular trade route for Chinese goods is to the United States because it has the shortest travel time.

East Coast ports, including Houston, saw a modest 2 percent year-over-year increase in container volumes. However, there was a 12 percent decrease in Chinese containers.

“The good news is we are still in the dark,” Cordero said. Although he says a decline is expected in the fourth quarter, what happens next is very important. “Time will tell how resilient the resilience of the American consumer and their spending activity will be, and the next two months will really inform the decline of that growth,” he said.

“We are forecasting an almost 16.6 percent year-over-year decline in U.S. imports in December, following a 12 percent decline in the third quarter,” said Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development for real-time container tracking platform Vizion. “There’s no turning back in sight,” Tracy said.

Retailers and manufacturers have paused strong freight orders amid fears of consumer pullback due to food and consumer goods inflation. The picture for retail earnings this week is mixed, with strong results from Walmart despite downbeat reports from Home Depot and Target saying more consumers are focusing on value and most sales are coming from upper-income shoppers.

“For the first time since March 2023, we are seeing monthly import volumes consistently fall below 2 million TEU; this is not just a seasonal decline or temporary correction,” said Vizion CEO Kyle Henderson. “Data suggests this is a recession in structural goods driven by tariff uncertainty, frozen housing markets and a shift in consumer spending away from physical goods,” he said.

“When furniture imports collapsed by 33 percent and toy imports, which had historically increased by 40-50 percent before the holidays, only increased by 17 percent, this suggests that retailers are betting on the weakest consumer season in years,” he said.

Vizion data shows that container usage dropped from 100 percent to 91 percent.

“With spot rates at two-year lows, we are facing a decade of overcapacity. This is not a volume crash, but a major reset in freight demand fundamentals,” Henderson said. “The freight market is already feeling the pain,” he added.

According to Vizion, containers scheduled to arrive at U.S. ports in December 2025 stood at 2.62 million TEUs last December, compared to 2.19 million twenty-foot equivalent units, and the volume loss of over 430,000 TEUs is causing a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain.

In addition to railways, trucks and warehouses that generate income from the transportation and storage of cargo, port labor is also affected.

Less cargo means less need for daily dock workers to move containers.

“The Labor Party is certainly concerned,” said Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “This again goes back to job declines and job anxiety. … When volume goes down, you’re going to have an impact on jobs in the supply chain, particularly on the docks here at the Port of Long Beach,” he said.

The International Dockers Union, the dockworkers responsible for moving the cargo, receives an annual container bonus based on the amount of cargo transported.

According to Vizion, in addition to Chinese tariffs, customs duties imposed on India have also collapsed the cargo market serving this trade. The Global Trade Research Initiative reported a massive 37.5% decline in the value of India’s total exports to the US between May and September 2025. India has a 50% customs duty on its exports.