China’s exports grow 5.9% in November, while US shipments drop 29%
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected contraction the previous month; but shipments to the U.S. fell nearly 29% from a year ago, for the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines.
China’s overall exports were 5.9% higher in dollar terms in November than last year; Customs data released on Monday showed $330.3 billion, a better figure than economists predicted. This was an improvement 1.1% contraction in October.
While exports from China to the United States fell for most of the year, shipments to other destinations, including Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, increased.
China’s imports rose 1.9% in November, better than the 1% growth in October; However, the persistent decline in the real estate sector is still weighing on consumer spending and business investment.
A. one-year trade ceasefire The agreement between China and the USA was reached at the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October. The US has reduced tariffs on China, and China has promised to halt export controls on rare earths.
“While the trade ceasefire and US tariff reductions have been positive for Chinese exports, we are now entering a period of negative base effects,” ING Bank economists Lynn Song and Deepali Bhargava said in a report, referring to the strong growth in exports ahead of major tariff increases by US President Donald Trump after his return to the White House. “This should keep business growth moderate.”
China’s factory activity last month signed for the eighth consecutive month Economists said it was too early to determine whether there was a real recovery in foreign demand following the US-China trade truce, according to an official survey.
With exports still strong, economists generally expect China to more or less meet its economic growth target of about 5% for this year.
Chinese leaders had outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing over the next five years. high level meeting In October. The annual economic planning meeting to be held this month is expected to shed light on the details of these plans.
BNP Paribas Asset Management Global Market Strategist Chi Lo said a stable global trade environment is unlikely to last long as Sino-US relations “remain at an impasse” despite temporary trade ceasefires.
Still, some economists believe China will continue to gain export market share in the coming years.
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from around 15% currently, thanks to advanced manufacturing and its advantage in fast-growing sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.
“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies adopting active industrial policies, we believe China will gain greater share of the global goods export market,” Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.
