Chinese trade to U.S. could drop by $485 billion: Tariff simulator

According to a tariff simulator estimating changes in global trade, exports from China to the US may now fall between 2027 and 2027 to half a trillion dollars ($ 485 billion).

Trade talks between the US and China continued on Monday in Stockholm.

Considering the dominant position of China in trade with the United States, this decline will be greater than the total decrease in global exports to the United States when the entire nations enters the model.

The estimation is based on the latest tariffs between the US and China and how global trade can be restructured in response. Currently, the US demands a combination of 51% for tariffs on Chinese goods, while the US exports to China faces 32.6% tariff. If any agreement could not be reached until August 12, it threatened much higher tariffs on US goods, which may increase tariff rates up to 145%.

US government data demonstrations Total Chinese import level 438.9 billion dollars In 2024.

After the latest agreements with Japan and EU determination tariff rates, President Trump stated on Monday, said the basic global tariff rate would probably be between 15-20%.

“Countries will have a natural tendency to keep trade relations away from the United States in most of these scenarios,” Cesar Hidalgo, Professor of Economics School of Economics. He said. And the founder of Datawheel, who built the OEC tariff simulator.

Countries of the Chinese manufacturing economy will also experience US exports weakness. Vietnam, a country that benefited from a “China plus” supply chain strategy that allows manufacturers to avoid some Chinese goods tariffs, could see that US exports fell by $ 102 billion until 2027.

South Korea is expected to decrease $ 49 billion in exports to the US by the tariff simulator.

According to the analysis, the products representing significant parts of these decreases include broadcasting equipment ($ 59.2 billion) and cars from China and Cars from South Korea ($-$ 58.7 billion).

At the same time, even if the US threatens additional tariffs to North American trade partners and has not been able to make an agreement with Canada so far, the US will import more than Canada (+128 billion dollars) and more than Mexico (+77 billion dollars) and the United Kingdom (+23 billion dollars) and will sign a trade agreement with the United States recently

Although the existing Chinese tariffs and EU tariffs level officialized in the trade agreement announced on Sunday will lead to an increase in US exports in 2027, the decline in Chinese goods that came to the US has already begun.

Currently, the ocean load data is monitoring a decrease in Chinese exports entering the US during the trade war. When the tariffs were threatened from 145% to 51% in June during a continuous trade war, some retailers and manufacturers attracted the burden in early July, but according to the latest data, the increase in the container volume of Los Angeles Port was short -lived.

Southern California and Vessel Traffic Service Sea Change General Manager Captain J. Kipling (KIP) Louttit’in weekly ship report, the first half of July rose to 66.8 ships per day. The incoming ships fell to 58.7 a day in the last weekly period, and two days ago, the ship visits fell to 55.

“This is a very robust indicator of the decreases on the container ship in the next to two weeks,” said Louttit.

Retail groups have repeatedly warned that the cycle of tariff threats and delays contributed only to uncertainty and hesitating progress with orders.

China also, according to the tariff simulator, with a decrease of US exports with a decrease of 101 billion dollars by 2027, soybean beans (–10 billion dollars), integrated circuits (integrated circuits (-7.33 billion dollars), petrole (-7.36 $), petrole (-7.36 $), (-7.36 $), petrole (-7.36 $) ($ 7.36).

During the latest trade war with the US, China participated in trade expansion talks with the others as well as ASEAN (Southeast Asian Union of Nations). The tariff simulator reflects Russia’s increasing trade share of lion with China to $ 69.8 billion. Other countries where China will expand trade relations include Vietnam ($ 34.4 billion), Saudi Arabia ($ 28 billion), South Korea ($ 27.9 billion), Australia (24.6 billion dollars) and Japan ($ 21.4 billion).

IKEA, Walmart US-China Trade War Effect

The company imports the most references from China to the United States (14.6%) and then, according to the bills of bills, which are receipts of containers that detail the import information and export information of the products. Walmart (8.6%), Costco (5.8%), fresh fruit (5.52%) and Amazon (3.83%).

Furniture is the best sequential product imported by IKEA (18.2%). Light synthetic cotton fabrics are imported by Walmart (64%).

Among the US states, Texas and California will carry the burden of a decline in trade with China. Texas is the highest level of $ 954 million managed by electrical machines and electronics (222 million dollars), mineral fuels, mineral oils and distilled products ($ 204 million) and machinery, mechanical tools and parts ($ 201 million) for exports to China.

California ranks second among the states, optics, photo and film equipment and medical instruments, $ 179 million in the state’s most export to China. Electric machines and electronics ($ 125 million) and machines, mechanical tools and parts ($ 93 million) are the most export from California to China. Oregon is managed by the number 3, exports to China of $ 458 million, electronic machines and electronics ($ 397 million).

Former Trade Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said that the current trade cuts in CNBC will be only one beep in the history of global trade, but “protectionism does not protect. He robs a nation from his vitality.”