Strategist Garry South and Mark Z. Barabak debate Newsom 2028

Gavin Newsom is running with an eye on the White House as he enters his final year as governor of California and the far stretch.

The record of California Democrats and the presidency is not good. In nearly 250 years of the United States, not a single Left Bank Democrat has been elected president. Kamala Harris is the latest to fail. (Twice.)

Can Newsom break this losing streak and make history in 2028?

Faithful readers of this column—both of you—know exactly how I feel.

Garry South disagrees.

The veteran Democratic campaign strategist, described by me as having a “throwing personality and a blast-furnace mouth,” has never been short of strong and colorful views. Here, we lay out our differences in an email exchange.

Barabak: You used to work for Newsom, right?

South: I really did. I was a senior strategist during his first campaign for governor. This lasted 15 months in 2008 and 2009. He dropped out of the race when he couldn’t figure out how to beat Jerry Brown in the closed Democratic primary.

I was the person who wrote the memorable punch line from Newsom’s speech to the state Democratic convention in 2009; the race was a choice between “a stroll down memory lane and a sprint into the future.”

We ended up down memory lane.

Barabak: Do you still advise Newsom or members of his political team?

South: No, although he and I keep in touch regularly and have been together since his days as lieutenant governor. I know most of their staff and consultants, but I do not work with them on any paid basis. Also, the governor’s sister and I are friends.

Barabak: You observed Newsom closely during the 2010 race. What are your strengths as a campaigner?

South: Newsom is a master communicator, has great stage presence, cuts a commanding figure, and can hold the audience in the palm of his hand when he’s really active. He has a mind like a steel trap and never forgets anything said or read to him.

I always attributed his incredible recall to his struggle with reading due to his lifelong struggle with severe dyslexia. Newsom’s reading is such an arduous endeavor that what he reads becomes etched in his mind in a way that seems permanent.

Barabak: Disadvantages or weaknesses?

South: Given his extraordinary command of facts and data and command of the English language, he can sometimes run for very long periods of time. During his first gubernatorial campaign, when he was still mayor of San Francisco, he once gave a seven-hour State of the City speech.

Barabak: Fidel Castro must have been impressed!

South: It wasn’t as bad as it sounds: It was split into 10 “Web Episodes” on the YouTube channel. But still…

Barabak: So let’s get to the point. I think Newsom’s chances of being elected president are somewhere between slim and nil — and Slim was last seen heading to Mexico alongside I-5 in San Ysidro.

You disagree.

South: I totally disagree. I think you underestimate the Trump-style changes (decay?) that have occurred in our political system in the last 10 years.

The election of Trump, a convicted felon, has, not once but twice, literally thrown to hell the traditional paradigms we’ve had for decades about how we evaluate the viability of presidential candidates — what state they’re from, their age, whether they’ve had setbacks in their personal or professional lives.

Oh, not to mention their criminal records, if they have any.

The American people actually elected to a second term a man who incited an insurrection against his own country when he first became president; Including this man carrying out an armed attack on our national capital, killing a woman, and being rightfully impeached for it. It would be foolish not to conclude that the old rules, the old conventional wisdom about what voters will and won’t accept, have completely disappeared.

It also doesn’t surprise me that you’re belittling Newsom’s expectations. It’s typical for home state reporting units to laugh when their own governor is touted as a presidential candidate.

First, familiarity breeds contempt. Secondly, a prophet is dishonorable in his own country.

Barabak: I’ll give you a few points.

I’m old enough to remember folks in the political press corps in Arkansas scoffing at the idea that their extraordinarily talented but wildly undisciplined governor might ever be elected president.

I also remember the old Clairol hair color commercials: “The closer he gets… the better you look!” (Google it, kids). It’s the opposite when it comes to presidential candidates and the reporters who follow them every day.

And you are absolutely right; The nature of what constitutes a scandal or disqualification of a presidential candidate has changed dramatically under Trump.

All that said, some basic principles remain the same. Going back to the Clinton campaign in 1992, Still economy, stupid. Or in other words, it is about people’s lived experiences, their economic security or lack thereof, and their personal well-being.

For now, Newsom is the favorite of the chattering political class and online activists because a) these are people already committed to the 2028 race and b) many of them are excited on social media to see Trump take on the president in a Trumpian way.

When the focus turns to issues affecting voters’ ability to pay for housing, health care, food, utility bills and living expenses, Newsom’s opponents will have a field day destroying him and California’s high prices, homelessness and shrinking middle class.

South: It’s not just the chattering class.

Newsom is now the leading candidate among rank-and-file Democrats. They’ve been begging – begging – for years for some Democratic leaders to step out of the box, get to the table, fight back and give Trump a dose of his own medicine. Newsom is meeting this demand with intelligence, skill and doggedness — not just on social media, but also by passing Proposition 50, the Democratic gerrymandering measure.

And Democrats recognize and appreciate that

Barabak: Hmm. Maybe I’m a little lacking in imagination, but I can’t imagine a world where Democrats say, “Hey, the solution to our heartbreaking defeat in 2024 is to nominate candidates.” another A well-formed, left-leaning product of the austere bastion of Americana in San Francisco.

South: Americans have now twice elected a president who is not just from New York City but lives in a Manhattan penthouse with a 24-karat gold front door (and allegedly gold-plated toilet seats) in an ivory tower. Do you think Manhattan is more representative of Middle America than San Francisco?

As I said, after Trump’s example, state of origin is less important now.

Barabak: Trump was an extraordinary, or at least Manhattan-superior, celebrity. Geography was no obstacle, for he had and has a remarkable ability, far beyond my estimation, to present himself as the tribune of working-class, oppressed and economically challenged Americans, even as he scatters gold leaf around him like a child with a box of Silly Strings..

Speaking of Kamala Harris, she hasn’t ruled out a third try at the White House in 2028. Where would you put your money in the Newsom-Harris battle for the Democratic nomination? How would you rate Harris versus whoever the Republicans pick in the general election?

South: Harris running again in 2028 would be like Michael Dukakis trying for the presidency for the second time in 1992. God, not only did she lose all the swing states and the electoral college by almost 100 votes, Harris also lost the popular vote; He’s the first Democrat to do so in 20 years.

If he doesn’t want to embarrass himself, he should listen to voters in his home state, who say he shouldn’t run again, by a 69-31 margin in the latest CBS News/YouGov poll. (Even 52 percent of Democrats said no). That’s yesterday’s news.

Barabak: It seems you feel like a walk down memory lane is enough. We’ll see if Harris, and more importantly, Democratic primary voters, will agree.