Cocoa prices are easing. So why is chocolate still so expensive?
People choose from premium Lindt chocolates at the Lindt & Sprungli chocolate store.
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Cocoa prices are starting to fall after a record-breaking rise, but don’t expect cheaper candy just yet as the world’s biggest chocolate makers turn to social media-inspired products and other strategies to win back shoppers.
Cocoa prices have reached record levels in the past two years, triggered by adverse weather conditions and poor cocoa harvests that have driven up chocolate costs and weakened consumer confidence.
However, the price of cocoa now appears to be falling.
Cocoa futures It was last traded at $5,327 per metric ton and is down 34% in the past year. The commodity rose to almost $12,000 per metric ton by the end of 2024. Cocoa prices have generally hovered between $2,000 and $3,000 over the past two decades.
Cocoa futures for the last five years.
Swiss Chocolate giants Barry Callebaut, LindtAnd Nestlé All He noted that rising cocoa prices are a drag on earnings.
Lindt said on Monday that price increases of 11.8% across the group Chocolate sales volumes are falling 7.5% as fewer customers purchased chocolate in the first half of the year.
“Record cocoa prices have required unprecedented price increases in the industry, while geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and weak consumer confidence have put pressure on demand,” Group CEO Adalbert Lechner said in an analyst call. he said. “The crisis in the Middle East has added a new headwind, with the weakening of tourism flows from Asia and the Middle East to Europe.”
Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate and cocoa supplier, is 4.4% buy less chocolate In the third quarter, the company’s overall sales volumes increased by 5.7% in the quarter compared to the same period last year and turned positive for the first time in more than two years. Additionally, global cocoa sales increased by 18% due to the market correction earlier this year.
Meanwhile, food and beverage firm Nestlé said higher cocoa and coffee prices had hit its underlying trading profit in the first half of the year, with a 2.8% drop. The company’s confectionery business accounts for 9.7% of its total sales. Nestlé expects margins to benefit from falling cocoa prices.
What’s going on with cocoa?
Variability in cocoa prices was largely due to poor cocoa harvests in West Africa; This situation has been exacerbated by weather conditions related to global warming. El Niño and climate change are causing supply constraints.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon with above-average temperatures that occurs every two to seven years in the Pacific Ocean. The increase in cocoa prices in 2024 is largely due to ‘strong’ El Niño has caused drier, hotter weather and erratic rainfall in West Africa. Range analysis Dr., a researcher at the Future of Food Program at Oxford Martin School. By Tanya Lander.
“So it is not surprising that El Niño weather has been linked to poor cocoa harvests in both Ivory Coast and Ghana (where 60-70% of global cocoa beans are produced),” Lander wrote.
A farmer cuts a cocoa pod to collect the beans inside on a farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, on Friday, November 18, 2022.
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Climate change and rising temperatures also play a role; 2024 was the hottest year in history. The recent heat wave across Europe could also dampen consumer interest in chocolate, UBS analysts said in an early July note on Lindt.
Heat waves and rising temperatures in some of Lindt’s core European markets could impact chocolate demand, with European sales excluding Eastern Europe likely to fall in the four weeks ending June 14, analysts said.
However, Barry Callebaut said that a strong El Niño is confirmed for 2026 and 2027 and poses a downside risk to supply, but a large surplus acts as a buffer for 2025-2026, leading to a very different situation from 2023-2024.
UBS analysts expect Lindt to hedge favorable cocoa bean prices for 2027; They estimate that this move could reduce costs by 500 million Swiss francs.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs also had a brief but significant impact, causing price increases and supply chain disruptions. More recently, conflict in the Middle East has also hit Lindt’s travel retail business globally, reducing tourism flows.
Premium chocolate, social media trends
As cocoa prices are expected to recover, chocolatiers are looking for ways to regain their core customer base by innovating on premium product formats as well as keeping a closer eye on social media trends that young people are engaging with.
Lindt launched its Dubai-style chocolate in December 2024. viral social media trend. global retailers Walmart to Trader Joe’s, Shake Shackand Harrods now also sells Dubai chocolate.
Lindt Dubai-style pistachio kunafa chocolates are on display in Newmarket, Ontario, Canada on September 20, 2025.
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Lindt CEO Lechner said the company plans to expand its “social media presence” to create a seamless journey between inspiration, discovery and purchase.
“The phenomenal success of our Dubai Style Chocolate launch demonstrated the growing power of social media in driving awareness, engagement and demand for our brands,” Lechner said on the earnings call. he said.
“This strategy helps us reach new audiences and strengthen our connection with young consumers.”
Nestlé CEO Philipp Navratil echoed that view during an analyst call on Thursday, saying the company plans to invest more in influencer marketing and that there will be changes to how the brand advertises itself.
“It’s more digital, more social, more organic, more fun. Addressing how young consumers interact with the world,” Navratil said.
Both Barry Callebaut and Lindt are focusing on consumer interest in premium products in the back half of the year, but instead of increasing prices, they are getting creative in how they present products.
“By expanding our pricing architecture, we can attract new consumers, increase purchasing frequency and offer more touchpoints without compromising our premium positioning with the Lindt brand,” Lechner said.
Lechner pointed out that Lindt selectively cuts prices in key markets such as Germany and Switzerland, especially at Christmas, to support consumer demand during its prime season. Meanwhile, Barry Callebaut and Nestlé did not mention lowering prices.
Instead, Barry Callebaut is moving into premium chocolate, growing its Gourmet business serving chefs and bakers, and expanding its high-end specialty chocolate offerings.
