Contributor: Trump has left himself only bad options on Iran

Nearly three months after the United States and Israel launched a massive bombing campaign against Iran and nearly six weeks after the April 8 ceasefire went into effect, President Trump faces a turning point. Will he return to war? Will you maintain the ceasefire and the US blockade of Iranian ports in the hope of reaching an agreement on American terms? Or will he abandon his maximalist negotiation stance?

Senator Lindsey Graham, R.S.C., informal foreign policy advisor to the White House. keeps pressing for more aggressive military action by the United States. Trump’s political advisors would prefer the war to end as quickly as possible to minimize political fallout for the Republican Party in the midterm election year.

Trump seems conflicted. Despite weeks of US bombardment and an ongoing naval blockade, Tehran maintains its nuclear program as much today as it was before the war began. “The clock is ticking for Iran and they better act FAST or there will be nothing left of them.” Trump wrote to Truth Social throughout the weekend. A day later, Trump took to the social media platform again announce suspended planned US attacks on Iran to allow more time for talks.

Unfortunately, Trump has proven to be his own worst enemy on this issue. The regime’s two biggest drawcards, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and Tehran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, are a byproduct of Trump’s own policy decisions.

First, a clear indictment of Trump’s first term US withdrawal order from the Obama era Joint Comprehensive Action PlanA highly technical deal that put Iran’s nuclear efforts in a box by restricting the number and quality of centrifuges it could use, limited the amount of enriched uranium it could produce and forced Tehran to send 97% of its stockpile out of the country. When the Trump administration canceled that difficult deal, Iran responded by quickly enriching more nuclear material and accumulating the stockpile that the Trump administration is now trying to neutralize.

Iran’s second card, the Strait of Hormuz, would not even be an issue today if the Trump administration had refrained from going to war in the first place. More than 150 tankers and ships passed through the strait on February 27, the day before the hostilities began. The international waterway was open to trade.

Not so today. total on Thursday Three passes were recorded in the waterway. This collapse of trade is a result of Iran’s ability to harass civilian tankers so much that shipping companies no longer view the journey as worth the cost. As Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US commander in the Middle East, testified “Iran’s capacity to stop trade has been dramatically exhausted in the strait, but their voices are very loud. And these threats are clearly being heard by the business sector and the insurance sector,” he told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

Thanks to his own actions, Trump now faces a range of policy options ranging from the least bad to the worst. None are ideal and all carry some risk.

For starters, Trump could restart the war. Any renewed US bombing campaign would likely expand the US military’s original target set to include part of Iran’s energy infrastructure, which Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike. The US occupation of Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s oil processing takes place, may also be controversial. The goal would be to destroy Iran’s remaining military capabilities and further cut its oil revenue until Tehran’s strategic calculus for the war changes to Washington’s liking.

But there is no guarantee that doubling military force will work. Trump’s entire strategy was based on a basic assumption: The more punitive the United States is, the more likely it is that Tehran will comply. But this has not happened yet. On the contrary, Iran is now more embroiled than in the early days of the conflict. For the regime, surrendering to Trump is as dangerous as losing the war. Why should further bombings succeed where previous bombings failed?

The risks of additional US military action are also significant. Before the ceasefire, Iran was launching ballistic missiles and attack planes at several Arab states in the Gulf, hitting Qatar’s largest natural gas processing facility, Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline and Dubai’s luxury high-rise buildings. As the Iranians have noted, such attacks will not only continue if Trump orders a restart of the war, but will also expand to new targets, including desalination plants and nuclear power plants. Such strikes could raise global oil and gas prices to even more absurd levels. an additional $40 billion The American people have already been paying for fuel since the war began.

How about continuing the status quo? While this contingency would be less costly than another round of bombings or a U.S. ground invasion, it is unclear whether it would help or hurt negotiations toward a settlement. There is a possibility that the expansion of the US blockade of Iranian ports will reaffirm the regime’s previous decision to close the strait. Iran is now calling on Washington to lift the blockade before negotiations on the nuclear dossier can be held. And whether the blockade against Trump is working is a mystery; US intelligence community assesses Iran can withstand this pressure point three to four more monthsIt may be too long for Trump to sustain Given the oil shortages It is inevitable that this will get worse.

Reaching an agreement to end the war, open the strait to traffic, and restrict Iran’s nuclear program would be the most beneficial policy for the United States at the least cost; This does not fully undo the damage done by Trump’s first-term decision to cancel the nuclear deal and his second-term decision to start a war. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are passing offers back and forth as we speak. But as of now, Trump can’t bring himself to accept a deal that includes some of Iran’s terms, including but not limited to a shorter suspension of enriched uranium and Iran assuming some sort of role in managing the strait. Even if Trump re-evaluates his position, he will have to confront the hawks in his political coalition who will view any failure to fully capitulate Iran as a failure.

In short, Trump is not in an enviable position. He has no one to blame but himself.

Daniel R. DePetris is a Defense Priorities fellow and foreign affairs columnist..