Cost of living crisis ‘holding young people back from having children’ as UK birth rate falls
Women without a degree “seem to be catching up” with the trend among their graduate peers to delay motherhood, new analysis suggests.
The Resolution Foundation evaluated Office for National Statistics (ONS), Government and other survey data to find the reasons behind the UK’s falling birth rate.
The think tank said its analysis showed that “the recent baby bust is driven by a recent increase in childlessness rates among young non-graduate women”, unlike women who graduate and delay or eliminate parenthood while prioritizing their careers.
Falling birth rates appear to be driven in part by the financial difficulties young people face, rather than people’s desire to step away from parenthood.
ONS data published last August showed that the fertility rate in England and Wales had fallen for the third year in a row, reaching a new record low.
In both countries, the total fertility rate, defined as the average number of live children that women expect to have during their reproductive lives, was 1.41 in 2024.
This was down from 1.42 in 2023 and was the lowest since 1938, when comparable data began.
The foundation’s latest paper, titled Bye Bye Baby, noted that more young people today are either continuing to live with their parents or staying in expensive private rented accommodation, which may be contributing to a falling birth rate.
He said more affordable housing and opportunities for young people to get on the property ladder should be considered by policymakers in making it more accessible for those who want to have children.
The proportion of childless 32-year-olds living in the lowest-income quartile in England is nearly twice as high as those who say they plan to remain childless permanently compared to the highest-income quartile. Financial constraints “shape not just behavior but intentions,” it said.
The newspaper stated that approximately three in 10 women and a quarter of men cited financial situation as the reason for not being able to have children yet.
The report included the following statements: “Yes, graduate women still tend to have children at later ages than others.
“But women without a degree also seem to be catching on to the trend of delaying motherhood.”
The report noted that non-graduate women aged 25-29 “have seen the most striking recent increase in the childless rate: from a third (33%) in 2011 to more than half (54%) in 2023” and that “understanding the experience of this group is therefore central to explaining the recent decline in birth rates”.
The article stated: “It remains unclear whether recent trends indicate a lag in outcome or a permanent decline, but the Government should consider the consequences carefully.
“This means making tax, spending and legislative choices that equitably adapt to the needs of a changing population.”
Charlie McCurdy, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The latest twist in the story of the UK’s falling birth rate is that non-graduate women in their mid-to-late 20s have seen a dramatic rise in the childless rate.
“Deciding whether to have children is an extremely personal choice, but it is clear that financial constraints are also involved.
“The sharp increase in the number of young people living with their parents or in high-cost, low-stability, rented housing poses significant barriers to starting a family.
“Policymakers should seek to address the financial barriers that impede young people’s ability to start families – such as improving housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder – to make parenthood more accessible to those who want it.”
