Could Iranian missiles hit the UK?
Britain has agreed to a US request to use British military bases for ‘defensive’ strikes against Iranian missile attacks, bringing the country closer to a conflict that escalated rapidly over the weekend.
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday, airstrikes spread across the Middle East, followed by retaliatory Iranian strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.
As America and Israel continue air strikes against Iranian targets, explosions continue to be reported across the region. The country’s religious leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a targeted attack on Saturday and top officials have vowed not to negotiate with the United States.
Britain did not join the US in joint airstrikes over the weekend; US President Donald Trump said he was “very disappointed” with this decision.
In a Commons statement, Sir Keir said: “President Trump expressed disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial attacks, but it is my duty to decide what is in Britain’s national interest.”
In his statement to MPs, the Prime Minister said, “This decision was deliberate” and “I stand behind this decision.”
He added that “we all remember the mistakes of Iraq” adding “any UK actions must always have a lawful basis and a viable thought-through plan”.
Around 300,000 Britons are understood to be in countries targeted by Iran, with 102,000 registered with the Foreign Office for updates. Authorities are reportedly examining all options, including potential mass evacuations.
Could Iran’s attack hit the UK?
As the UK is drawn further into the conflict, some in Britain are naturally concerned about the potential for fallout to reach the mainland.
Experts say this is unlikely because Iran’s offensive capabilities have not been assessed long-term enough to hit Britain.
Vuk Vuksanović, of foreign policy think tank LSE IDEAS, said: “There is no evidence that Iran has the capacity to attack the US or UK mainland. With its missile and drone capabilities, Iran has the capacity to strike US and UK military outposts in the wider Middle East, including the Gulf and Levant.”
Intelligence received from the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies shows that Iran’s farthest-reaching warhead is the Khorramshahr 4 missile. The missile can potentially hit targets 2,000 to 3,000 km away.
This is a long distance, covering many countries, but not enough to cover the 5,000km distance to the UK.
Chatham House International Security Director Dr. Marion Messmer said: “Based on what we know about Iran’s missile capabilities, [an attack on the UK is] not possible. “Other parts of Europe may be at risk, but the UK is out of range.”
As for British nationals in areas close to the conflict, it is understood Iran sent two drones to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus on Monday and they were intercepted.
Another drone struck the UK base overnight with no casualties and limited damage, according to Cypriot officials.
