Could Starmer resign and who are the top contenders to replace him as prime minister?

Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has paved the way for a leadership battle against Sir Keir Starmer amid growing calls for him to resign as prime minister.

By defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by 9,231 votes to 5,399 in 2024, Mr Burnham defied national trends to increase Labour’s vote share in an area where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK made big gains in last month’s local elections.

His victory was seen by some as proof that the former Greater Manchester mayor could defeat Reformation; Mr Burnham’s allies have called on the prime minister to hand over power.

Earlier this year, Josh Simons vacated the seat to give him the chance to return to Westminster and challenge Sir Keir, but Labor’s struggle to beat Nigel Farage’s party meant Mr Burnham faced an uphill battle.

The dramatic victory piled further pressure on the prime minister’s already strained position in No 10 after he was nearly ousted following last month’s disastrous local elections.

The state of the operation was thrown into further chaos earlier this month when John Healey, once a key ally of the prime minister, resigned, accusing him of failing to provide enough money to fund the government’s defense investment plan (DIP).

Here, Independent As we take a look at each of the potential leadership candidates, readers can share their thoughts:

Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham has long been seen as a candidate to replace Sir Keir. He has been hinting at a leadership bid for months and may be just days away from launching a formal challenge now that he has won the seat of Makerfield.

Popular with Labor MPs, party members and the general public, Mr Burnham consistently ranks well ahead of other Labor figures in polls; 47 per cent of members rank him as their first choice to lead the Labor Party, with Starmer’s 31 per cent choosing him.

During the BBC’s Question Time special on the seat, he confirmed he would challenge the prime minister if he finally won the seat, framing it as a chance to “change Labour”.

Last year, Mr Burnham repeatedly failed to reject a leadership bid and was regularly put forward as the leading candidate to take over if Sir Keir’s position as prime minister became untenable.

Mr Burnham, MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, was the focus of such rumors when he revealed at the Labor Party conference last September that dozens of MPs had privately called on him to challenge the prime minister.

Wes Street

The former health secretary was at the center of leadership speculation last month when she announced she was resigning from Sir Keir’s cabinet.

In his statement announcing his departure, he said it was “now clear” that Sir Keir would not lead the party at the next general election.

Mr Streeting, who is on the party’s centre-right, is a charismatic cabinet minister who can connect with the public.

Towards the end of last year, talk of a possible leadership bid grew louder, amid a briefing war targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambition to replace Sir Keir.

Mr Streeting is understood to have the support of enough Labor MPs to launch his leadership bid by recruiting more than 81, the minimum number needed to trigger a leadership election.

He has previously expressed concern about the direction of the government and said there was a “toxic culture” at No 10 when briefings against him were made public in November.

The main obstacle facing Mr Streeting is the perception among some Labor factions that he is too far to the right of the party and the general feeling that he does not have enough support to launch a successful bid.

He has announced his first policy commitments since leaving the cabinet, including the full restoration of Sure Start, which will be funded by a wealth tax. He also said he would delay any formal Labor leadership challenge until after Andy Burnham contested the Makerfield by-election.

Angela Rayner

Rumors about the Ashton-under-Lyne MP’s ambitions have been circulating since the moment he resigned from Sir Keir’s cabinet last September, after it was revealed he had underpaid stamp duty on his Brighton flat.

But he has now been cleared of wrongdoing, clearing the way for him to potentially run for party leadership.

Rayner, once the prime minister’s number two, is popular with the party’s soft left and is considered one of the MPs most likely to stage a coup.

He issued a stern warning to Sir Keir after the May election, saying: “Labour exists to make working people better off. This is not happening fast enough and it needs to change now.”

While Ms Rayner has ruled out triggering the leadership race herself, she has not ruled out taking part in one triggered by one of her rivals.

He also did not rule out backing another name on the party’s soft left, such as Andy Burnham, after arguing that he should not be prevented from returning to parliament.

The Rayner-Burnham pact will be a formidable force on the left of the party and will be extremely difficult for other candidates to defeat.

Shabana Mahmood

Another candidate put forward for the top job is the home secretary, who was actually backed by former prime minister Tony Blair last year.

Amid previous speculation that Sir Keir might be forced to resign as prime minister, Shabana Mahmood has emerged as a frontrunner to replace him.

Shortly after Mr Burnham announced his intention to stand in the Makerfield by-election, key figures in one of the Labor Party groups threw their support behind Ms Mahmood in a significant blow to the Greater Manchester mayor.

His influential colleague Lord Maurice Glasman, who founded the Blue Labor movement on the right of the party, and senior MP Graham Stringer have made clear they are not keen to support Mr Burnham following the row over his support for rejoining the EU.

But Ms Mahmood’s biggest problems are similar to Mr Streeting’s. Like him, he is seen as being on the right of the party and polls poorly among Labor members.

Al Carns

Al Carns’ resignation last Thursday has fueled speculation that the former sailor will emerge as a dark horse in the potential Labor leadership race.

Mr Carns did not rule out a possible leadership run but insisted his political career was about “service” rather than “ambition”.

Asked if he resigned out of ambition rather than principle, he told BBC Radio 4: “People get confused about ambition and service. My whole career has been about service. If I wanted to be ambitious, I wouldn’t have gone into politics. If I wanted to make more money, I wouldn’t have gone into politics.”

“I left the army not because my career was going south, but because I decided I wanted to make a change, because I thought we were at a pivotal moment in UK history.

“So it’s about the service I was given. I’ve made it clear, I haven’t received my P45 from my last job yet and you know, we’ll see what happens.”