Cracks emerge in Iran’s leadership as it reels under bombardment
Written by: Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall
DUBAI, March 7 (Reuters) – Iran’s hierarchy is showing signs of cracking over a war its leaders see as existential; Angry divisions between hard-liners and more pragmatic groups emerged in a row over President Masoud Pezeshkian’s pledge not to attack the Gulf states.
Fissures within Iran’s ruling elite had long been suppressed under the harsh rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but his killing a week ago allowed them to be exposed as U.S. and Israeli strikes increase pressure on Tehran.
The incessant bombardment mortally endangers the Islamic Republic and has prompted its most notorious lieutenants, the Revolutionary Guard, to take a greater role in the strategy, despite a decapitation campaign that has killed many top commanders.
Sources close to the Iranian administration speaking from within the country told Reuters that tensions began to appear among the leading figures who are still alive after a series of murders in the US-Israeli attacks. They spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue.
In a sign of growing stress in the system, clergy are accelerating the appointment of a new religious leader, with a possible decision on Sunday; But it is not yet clear whether Khamenei’s successor will have enough authority to eliminate factional disagreements.
While his son Mojtaba Khamenei is seen as a frontrunner, backed by the Guard and his father’s powerful office, he is untested, younger than most of Iran’s senior ayatollahs, and has alienated moderates within the system.
Other potential candidates may struggle to maintain the unquestioning obedience of the Guard required to maintain discipline within the system.
“Wartime tends to clarify power structures, and in this case the decisive voice is not the civilian leadership but the Revolutionary Guard,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, using the acronym for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS ARE VERY ANGRY ABOUT PEZESHKIAN’S STATEMENT
Pezeshkian’s apology to Gulf states for a week-long attack on their territory and his commitment to rein in such attacks caused hardliners in the Revolutionary Guard and religious elites to quickly backtrack, forcing him into a partial escalation.
In one of the most public criticisms of Pezeshkian and a sign of internal division, hardline cleric and lawmaker Hamid Rasai called out the president on social media, saying: “Your stance was unprofessional, weak and unacceptable.”
When the president later repeated his earlier statement on social media, he omitted the apology, which greatly angered the Guard and other radicals; It was a shameful retreat.
Of course, all senior figures within the hierarchy remain steadfast in their determination to defend the Islamic Republic and its revolutionary theocracy against US and Israeli attacks, but there are clear divisions over their strategic approaches.
Iran’s leadership has sometimes highlighted differences between hardliners and moderates as a tactic in negotiations with the West, but the disagreement over Pezeshkian’s statement on Saturday revealed real divisions, two senior sources said.
A conservative close to Khamenei’s office, which remains a central node in the hierarchy, told Reuters that Pezeshkian’s comments angered many senior commanders in the Guard.
Another senior Iranian source, a moderate former official, said no one could replace Khamenei, describing the late leader as a formidable strategist who carried Iran through many difficult times.
As concerns grow in the upper echelons of Iran, senior ayatollahs have begun publicly calling for the religious body responsible for appointing a religious leader to step up its work.
“The process should be accelerated in a way that will lead to disappointment of the enemy and preserve the unity and solidarity of the nation,” Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani said in a statement carried by the semi-official Fars News Agency.
CHALLENGES PRESENTED EVEN IN THE TOP LEADERSHIP BODY
In Iran’s unusual system, an elected president, government and parliament are subordinate to a clerically-appointed ayatollah who, as religious leader, wields ultimate authority and personally supervises the Revolutionary Guard and other powerful organs of state.
During his 36 years as leader, Khamenei often played hardline and moderate factions within the ruling system against each other, retaining the final say and allowing them to air disagreements as long as they submitted to his orders.
When he died, leadership formally passed to a constitutionally mandated interim council that included Pezeshkian, the cleric of the judiciary, and another cleric from a rigid body called the Guardian Council.
In Khamenei’s absence, there are tensions even within this narrow structure, with the judiciary chief, hard-line Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, saying some regional states have allowed their territory to be used for attacks.
“Heavy attacks against these targets will continue,” he said, contradicting Pezeshkian’s more conciliatory statement.
Yet although Khamenei sometimes allowed moderate or reformist voices to come to the fore in disagreements with hardliners, they were often rejected when the system appeared to be threatened.
(Reporting by Parisa Hafezi; Writing by Angus McDowall; Editing by Rod Nickel)
