China exports sharply beat expectations in the first two months as trade surplus surges to highest on record
A cargo ship loads and unloads foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao, China’s Shandong Province, 13 January 2026.
Cphoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
China’s trade surplus increased highest level on record Exports largely exceeded expectations in the combined January-February period, underlining the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy despite trade tensions with the US
China usually combines January and February trade data to smooth out distortions from the shifting Lunar New Year holiday.
The trade balance rose to $213.62 billion, compared to expectations of $179.6 billion.
Exports from China increased by 21.8% on an annual basis in the January-February total period, above the 7.1% growth expected by economists participating in the Reuters survey.
According to customs data on Wednesday, imports increased by 19.8% in the first two months compared to the previous year, against expectations of 6.3% growth.
Government data showed Trade with the US reached 609.71 billion yuan ($88.22 billion), a 16.9% decrease compared to the same period of the previous year, while trade with the EU increased by 19.9% to 998.94 billion yuan.
Trade with ASEAN also increased by 20.3%, reaching 1.24 trillion yuan.
The trade figures came after China’s consumer inflation posted its biggest rise in more than three years, boosted by spending during extended holidays.
The surprise was partly due to the relatively late Lunar New Year holiday, which may have increased the annual growth rate compared to last year, Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note after the data release. But he added that this “probably cannot fully explain the surprise.”
The strong export performance, combined with the relatively low growth target set at Beijing’s annual “Two Sessions” policy meetings, suggests additional stimulus is unlikely in the near term, Zhang said.
At the “Two Sessions” policy meeting, Premier Li Qiang set a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest range since the early 1990s.
China’s CPI rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, beating economists’ forecasts for a 0.8% increase in a Reuters poll.
The increase, which followed a 0.2% increase in January, marked the strongest recovery since January 2023.
The data also came after Chinese Premier Li Qiang acknowledged the impact of US tariffs when setting economic targets at his “Two Sessions” meeting on Thursday.
Beijing and Washington have been locked in a trade war since US President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office in January 2025, with both sides raising and lowering tariffs on each other’s goods through 2025.
However, relations improved after a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping during the APEC summit in Busan, South Korea, in October.
US tariffs on Chinese goods currently stand at 10% globally after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
However, previous tariffs under Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Article 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 are still in effect, reaching up to 100% for some products.
business intelligence firm Statement made at the China Briefing in February “Due to the multitude of existing duties, the effective duty rate on many Chinese goods shipped to the United States remains close to 30 percent, still the highest rate of any country.”
— CNBC’s Anniek Bao and Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.
