U.S. is in the dark on Mojtaba Khamenei’s views on the bomb
WASHINGTON— Days after he was named Iran’s next supreme leader and more than a week after U.S. and Israeli bombings wiped out most of his family, Mojtaba Khamenei made his first statement Thursday, demanding revenge from the alliance for the war he unleashed.
He called on Iranian forces to continue blocking vital shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. He promised that new fronts would be opened against the USA and Israel. And he warned that Gulf countries hosting US bases would continue to be targets of Iranian attacks.
But what worried the White House most was what the new religious leader did not say.
Khamenei did not mention a strategic effort that has dragged the Islamic Republic into war: its nuclear program, which has been suspected for decades of having military dimensions.
Trump administration officials told The Times they were largely in the dark about the new supreme leader’s stance on whether Iran should move to build nuclear weapons.
Khamenei’s deep alliance with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has in the past advocated pro-armament, has raised concerns that the new leader will depart from his father’s longstanding stance against bomb-making.
US intelligence assessments have long indicated that the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei adopted a strategy of avoiding the costs and risks of producing nuclear weapons by remaining on the verge of developing them. In 2003, as the United States invaded Iraq over false claims that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, Khamenei issued a religious edict (a fatwa) declaring that nuclear weapons were prohibited under Islam.
That doctrine is now in doubt, with the new supreme leader left simmering underground, wounded by a U.S. attack that devastated the Iranian military and killed his father, mother and sister, among other family members.
US officials’ concern comes as Trump has expressed interest in ending the war “very soon” even though a stockpile of uranium, a key ingredient in making nuclear weapons, is buried but remains accessible to Iranian officials.
Defense officials are skeptical that the nuclear program can be eliminated entirely without sending a significant U.S. ground force, a situation Trump has sought to avoid. However, ending the war with Iran’s nuclear infrastructure partially intact could have devastating consequences. The U.S.-Israeli campaign could force the new Iranian leader to conclude that regime survival requires nuclear deterrence, one official said.
“Even if President Trump declares victory tomorrow and points to the damage done to Iran’s conventional military, the reality is you have a more stringent regime with the essential ingredients for a nuclear weapon,” said Eric Brewer, vice president of the nuclear material security program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, noting that Tehran still has a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium (near weapons-grade) and advanced centrifuges to get it across the finish line.
“What’s the plan for the next day as Iran begins to recover and potentially seek nuclear weapons?” Brewer asked. he added.
Patrick Clawson, director of the Iran program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Mojtaba Khamenei’s stance on the nuclear program is a stubborn mystery. He said reports circulating on social media that he opposed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal brokered between world powers and Iran during the Obama administration, were false.
“Although Mojtaba often advised his father on domestic matters, there is much less information about his stance on foreign affairs, other than his anti-Israel sentiment,” Clawson said. “I have seen no indication that he has taken a position on the JCPOA.”
President Trump has identified the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities as a main goal. But defense officials were less emphatic in closed-door briefings to Congress, according to Democratic lawmakers.
On Tuesday, shortly after Khamenei was elected to succeed his father, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke with reporters and warned him to desist from pursuing nuclear work.
“It would be wise for our president to heed his words not to pursue nuclear weapons and come forward and state that,” Hegseth said.
