Deaths projected to outnumber births in UK every year from 2026 | Population
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), deaths are predicted to exceed births each year in the UK from 2026, and the population is expected to grow at a slower rate than previously reported over the next few decades.
It is predicted that approximately 1.7 million people will join the population between 2024 and 2034, and the total number will increase by 2.5%, from 69.3 million to 71 million, before starting to decline in the mid-2050s.
This is smaller than the increase contained in ONS figures published last year, which predicted an increase of 3 million over the same period and the population rising by 4.3% to a total of 72.2 million by 2034.
Estimates have been revised downwards to reflect the recent sharp decline in net migration and future declines in fertility rates.
James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, said: “Our latest forecasts show population growth is slower than previously anticipated.
“This is mainly due to low migration assumptions and low fertility assumptions, reflecting the recent rapid decline in net migration. At the UK level, population is projected to peak in the 2050s before falling.”
Forecasts are not forecasts or predictions and are based on current and historical trends.
UK population growth is expected to slow further in the 2030s and 2040s, reaching 72.5 million in 2054 and then declining, falling to 72.1 million in 2064 and 71.4 million in 2074.
Previous forecasts suggested the population would continue to grow until 2096.
In the long term, net migration – the difference between the number of people moving into the country and the number leaving – is expected to be the sole driver of population growth in the UK over the next few decades.
Net migration to the UK stands at an estimated 204,000 per year to June 2025, down 69% from 649,000 in the previous 12 months.
It is predicted that 2.2 million more people will be added to the population through net migration in the 10 years until 2034; The natural change will see 450,000 more deaths than births, resulting in an overall growth projection of 1.7 million for this period.
ONS figures show that populations across the UK’s four countries will peak at different times.
Although England is projected to reach a peak of 62.1 million in 2056, this peak is expected to occur much earlier elsewhere, reaching Wales (3.2 million) in 2035, Scotland (5.6 million) in 2033 and Northern Ireland (1.9 million) in 2031.
The total projected growth in the UK population over the 25 years from 2024 to 2049 would be 3.1 million, or an increase of 4.5%.
This is significantly lower than the growth over the past 25 years, from 1999 to 2024, when the population increased by an estimated 10.6 million, or 18.1%.
The figures also reflect the ongoing change in the age structure of the UK population.
The number of people of retirement age is expected to increase from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, accounting for one fifth of the total population.
In contrast, children under 16 will make up a smaller share of the population, falling from 12.6 million (18.2% of the total) to 11 million (15.5%).
When the UK population is predicted to peak in 2054, pensioners will make up 22% of the total population and under-16s will make up 14.5%.
Maike Currie, vice-president of personal finance at financial institution PensionBee, said: “The UK’s demographic drift is turning into a deepening demographic drift. For the pension system, this means fewer future workers to support more retirees.”
“With previous figures showing that a third of UK leavers are aged between 16 and 34, the pension system is facing a double whammy: fewer contributors and more retirees, putting real pressure on state pensions and long-term investment flows.”
