Deaths set to outnumber births in the UK in 2026 ‘in new era’ that could lead to higher taxes
The UK faces a “turning point” this year, a think tank predicts; Over the next 50 years, deaths will far outnumber births.
The Resolution Foundation said this impact would make the country dependent on immigration for population growth – just six months after the Office for National Statistics predicted immigration would lead to a 5.9 per cent population increase by 2032.
But the latest figures showing a decline in immigration levels to the UK, combined with a change in the birth and death rate and a rise in public spending, mean the think tank is warning of fewer working-age people, higher taxes and a more fragile political environment.
In a statement IndependentGreg Thwaites, co-author of the think tank’s New Year Outlook 2026 report, said: “2026 could be a watershed year when deaths begin to outnumber births and, absent migration, the population begins to decline.”
“This may shift the conversation on immigration away from debates about whether the country is already ‘full’ and whether we want to address population decline. But immigration policy and how much it should prioritize economic growth over other considerations will likely remain politically charged.”
Solution Foundation’s the report said The number of births in the country has exceeded deaths in almost every year since the beginning of the 20th century, except for 2020 and 2023 due to the Covid pandemic.
But the experts behind the report say the figures show a trend for deaths to outpace births in the long term, after noting that births will outpace deaths in 2024 and that figure was expected by an “even narrower margin” last year.
He warned that deaths could outnumber births by 100,000 a year by the mid-2040s.
The report, co-authored by Ruth Curtice, stated: “These results [previous years’ figures on births and deaths] He suggests that 2026 could be the first year of a new era in which deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin, closing forever a chapter in this country’s demographics that opened more than a century ago.
“From then on, any population growth we get will come from international net migration, which according to the latest data is down by three-quarters from its recent peak to around 200,000 a year.”
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that fertility rates (the average number of children women expect to have) have fallen to a record low of 1.4 in England and Wales by 2024. Rates across the UK have fallen more than in other G7 countries.
An Ipsos poll last year found that almost half of British adults are postponing or giving up on having children; Money concerns are the most important factor.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has previously stated that the decline in the working-age population covering aged care and retirement costs could pose a threat to public finances.
In its general outlook, Çözüm Foundation also questions whether the government will cut public expenditures to reduce the budget deficit, and predicts that a low growth rate in average incomes will continue, “with an outlook that is not good enough for living standards.”
However, the report states that child poverty will fall sharply after the two-child benefit limit is removed.
Under pressure from the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to reduce net migration to the UK, claiming record high figures in 2023 are putting housing and public services under too much pressure.
“Taken together, these trends point to a country in the midst of a slow but consequential transition: fewer people of working age, a more fragile polity, higher taxes, and an economy that urgently needs new firms and new jobs to replace old ones,” the Solution Foundation’s report said.
“The story of 2026 is not a story of crisis, but of drift that eventually gives way to change. The question of whether this change is managed or simply endured will define the coming years.”
A government spokesman did not comment on tax speculation but said: “We are continuing to grow with a record £120bn in new capital spending and keeping inflation under pressure, helping the Bank of England cut interest rates six times since the election.”
“The Budget doubles down on our work to grow the economy and create good jobs by keeping the corporation tax cap at 25 per cent, the lowest rate in the G7, supporting our high streets with permanently low tax rates and making it easier for start-ups to scale and invest in the UK.”
