Deficit shrinks to 15% but uneven rains fan Kharif concerns

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon has rebounded sharply after a weak June, but its patchy distribution continues to pose a risk to the ongoing kharif season, with most of the country still experiencing inadequate rainfall. Economists said total rainfall figures may indicate an improvement, but spatial distribution could significantly harm agricultural growth.

The total precipitation deficit narrowed from 38% in June to 15% as of July 9. However, India Meteorological Department data shows that of the 738 districts it observed between June 1 and July 8, rainfall was deficient in 280 and substantially deficient in 97.

Read more: Kharif sowing slow, 15 more districts suffer from rainfall shortage

Many of the affected districts are in key agricultural states such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where farmers grow pulses, oilseeds, cotton, paddy and maize. Agricultural lands in some of these places are rain-fed and irrigation coverage is very low.

“Recent rain has alleviated immediate concerns. However, it does not eliminate the risks associated with below-normal monsoon rains,” said QuantEco economist Yuvika Singhal. The research firm estimates that insufficient rainfall will potentially slow agricultural growth, reducing it to 0-1% in fiscal 2027 from around 3% in the last fiscal year, increasing upside risks to food inflation.

Headline rainfall figures mask significant regional disparities, experts say.
“From an agricultural perspective, the timing and spatial distribution of rainfall is more important than the total numbers,” said Pushan Sharma, director of Crisil Intelligence. He said about 100 of the 377 rainfall-deficient districts are predominantly rain-fed, where insufficient soil moisture can affect crop establishment and reduce yields.Read more: Rainfall gap narrows to 24% to support Kharif sowing in July

Sharma said soyabean and cotton growing regions in Maharashtra and MP, as well as pulses and groundnut belts in Karnataka and Gujarat, continue to face moisture stress despite improvement in the national rainfall situation.