Economic outlook is worsening and Trump is getting blamed, CNBC survey finds
Despite the stock market’s rally and improvement in inflation numbers, the public remains as depressed about the economy and increasingly worried about the cost of everyday items, as it has been since the years immediately following the pandemic, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
Bottom line: Deeply negative approval numbers for President Donald Trump remain, but only a modest advantage for Democrats when it comes to the public’s preference for control of Congress.
The survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found that 61% of the public are pessimistic about the current state of the economy and the outlook for the future. This is the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just starting to emerge from pandemic-era inflation. Only 25 percent are optimistic about the current and future prospects of the economy.
Here are all the results of the survey
“More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving voters in a distinctly negative mood heading into the midterm election cycle,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, one of the poll’s Republican pollsters.
In response to higher prices, 47% of the public reported cuts to essential items such as food and medical care, up six points from the April survey.
Two-thirds say they have reduced non-essential purchases such as dining out and entertainment by 5 percentage points. Americans also say they are cutting back on travel and credit card use at a greater rate than in April.
These figures come in parallel with the recent decline in oil and gasoline prices and contrast with the steady and moderate growth reported in national retail sales.
But national figures may be determined by the spending of the rich. The All-America survey finds that 60 percent of those with incomes under $30,000 have reduced spending on basic needs, compared to only 35 percent of those with incomes over $100,000.
Both Democratic and Republican pollsters for the poll say the modest decline in gas prices over the past few weeks hasn’t been enough to offset the lingering effects of both recent and past increases in prices.
“People are still paying a lot more for stuff a year and a half ago than they were two years ago, and that’s new enough that it still hurts and it still stirs up a lot of anger,” said Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, the survey’s Democratic pollster. “When gas prices drop 50 cents over the course of a month, that’s not enough to make up the difference.”
Low grades in economics
Trump’s approval ratings remain deep, though largely unchanged from CNBC’s April poll.
The latest poll found the president’s net approval rating at 40%, with 59% disapproving, 1 point worse than the April poll. Sixty percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, while 38% approve. Both changes are within the poll’s margin of error, but at -22, they leave the president underwater the most in his political career.
The poll also found that the public disapproves of Trump’s handling of the war with Iran by a 63% to 35% margin and his handling of inflation and the cost of living by a 68% to 31% margin.
Still, the Democratic Party has only a 4-point advantage in congressional preferences, unchanged from April, as the party appears to benefit only modestly from dissatisfaction with the economy and the Iran war.
“That means Democrats have an advantage at this point, five months before the election, but it’s not a huge advantage,” Campbell said. “It doesn’t indicate a wave right now, and I think that’s my baseline.”
Both pollsters noted that sharply divided voters are “locked” to their own party and reluctant to switch sides, no matter how concerned they are about the economy. The poll found, for example, that partisans increased their support for their party of choice compared to April, which largely offset each other and resulted in no change in the overall preference for congressional control.
It is also an environment where each side defines the other by its extremes and achieves a certain success in doing so.
Half of voters said they were unlikely to support a Democratic Socialist candidate, while 32% said they would. The president’s support is slightly worse; 52 percent say they would not support such a candidate. Worst of all, self-identified MAGA candidates; The poll found 57% of the public said they were unlikely to support it.
Divided by issues
On the most pressing issues, each side has its own advantages.
Democrats lead by 7 points on the top concern. In terms of food and grocery costs, it is ahead with a 3-point difference on the second most important issue, “protecting democracy”.
But Republicans have a 22-point lead on immigration and border security, the third-biggest issue among the 10 issues on the list. This is followed by a 6-point Democratic lead on housing and an 18-point advantage on the cost of health care.
Democrats, independents and women, especially women ages 18-49, see food prices as the most important issue. White voters and voters of color do the same, as do voters in all income groups except the top income group, which emphasizes “protecting democracy.”
The only major demographic group for whom immigration is a top issue is Republicans. Meanwhile, 46 percent of voters ages 18 to 34 put housing at the top and say it is an important issue. The cost of food for the youngest group ranks second by far with 33%.
Among the sharpest divisions in the poll are those related to the war with Iran, which lost support compared to the April poll.
Only 48 percent of the public believes military action against Iran is worth disrupting the country’s ability to develop nuclear weapons; This rate was 53 percent in April. Half the country says it’s not worth it; In the previous survey, this rate was 44%. The president’s net approval on relations with Iran fell to -28, 3 points worse than the previous poll.
Trump is in deep water with parts of his own party over the Iran war. Only 47% of non-MAGA Republicans, who represent about a third of the GOP, approve of the president’s handling of Iran, with 50% approval. By contrast, 86% of MAGA Republicans support the president’s handling of the issue.
