Category 5 Landfall Imminent As Jamaica Takes Cover
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As Hurricane Melissa approaches Jamaica with Category 5 intensity, we are just hours away from a historic landfall. Below you can find the latest news and expert analysis on this storm; Please remember to refresh this page frequently for the latest updates.
(MORE: Full Melissa Forecast | Map Tracker)
(10:00 EDT) Melissa Is Stronger Than Milton (2024)
At 10 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Melissa strengthened further. The National Hurricane Center says minimum central pressure is 892 mb and maximum sustained winds are 185 mph. It is now just 45 miles south-southeast of Negril.
This ties Melissa with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which was the third most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. Only Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb) were stronger.
(09:50 EDT) Near-Landscape Information Outage Likely
After reviewing several landfalls of catastrophic hurricanes, here’s what’s about to happen: Within hours and possibly days of landfall, we’re unlikely to get detailed information or visuals from southwestern Jamaica or the mountains where Melissa is expected to be worst hit. This is directly due to the widespread, massive damage that will be left behind and the need to address people in emergency situations first.
We will of course share any information we receive following what we now know will be a devastating landfall that will change this beautiful island nation forever.
(09:36 EDT) ‘This Is Not A Joke’
AP Photo/Matias Delacroix
From the author Renee Straker:
Even hurricane-tested Jamaicans took the Melissa threat seriously. Heeding the stern warnings this video shows you How many people prepared for what was expected to be a devastating landing?
But government officials were concerned late Monday. They said not enough people were evacuating low-lying coastal areas. Jamaica’s Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie said 133 of the 880 shelters on the island were being used.
(09:00 EDT) Melissa Now 6th Strongest Atlantic Hurricane on Record
From the meteorologist Tiffany Savona:
Hurricane Hunters see Hurricane Melissa continuing to strengthen. Pressure dropped to 896 mb and maximum sustained winds increased to 180 mph. The NHC says the northern eyewall is approaching Jamaica’s southern coast; We will likely see a landfall within a few hours.
(08:57 EDT) Jamaican Official: 1,000 People in Shelters as Melissa Approaches
AP Photo/Matias Delacroix
From senior writer Chris DeWeese:
As Renee noted, government officials in Jamaica express concern about the number of people who decide to take advantage of shelters that have opened across the island. A key Jamaican government official told the BBC that around 1,000 people were in shelters in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa approached the island.
Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office, Abka Fitz-Henley, also told BBC Newsday that the government expects “significant infrastructure damage” from this storm.
(08:35 EDT) NHC Uses Sobering Language to Describe Melissa’s Terrifying Threat
NOAA via AP
From the meteorologist Jennifer Gray:
NHC warned this morning:
“Stay sheltered! Catastrophic flooding, mudslides, and devastating winds will continue today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolating communities. Total structure collapse is possible near the center of Melissa. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected throughout the day along the south coast. Failure to act could result in serious injury or loss of life.”
(08:08 EDT) Eye Wall Closes
From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center, meaning the eyewall of the strongest winds is rapidly approaching western Jamaica.
If this were a U.S. hurricane, the National Weather Service would have issued an “extreme wind warning” for western Jamaica.
The NWS issues these “extreme wind warnings” if an eyewall above Category 3 (winds greater than 185 mph) arrives within an hour in the United States. It was last published in the United States as Hurricane Milton reached central Florida last October.
(08:00 EDT) 08:00 EDT Alert is on Air…
And there was no change. Maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, minimum central pressure of 901 mb. If it makes landfall at this pressure, it would be the fourth most intense landfall on record in the Atlantic Basin, behind only Camille (1969, Mississippi), Gilbert (1988, Mexico), and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (Florida Keys).
Melissa is now just 55 miles south-southeast of Negril. It’s safe to say that landfall is imminent.
(07:40 EDT) A Historic First for Jamaica
From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:
The National Hurricane Center predicts Melissa will make landfall in Jamaica at Category 5 intensity. This would be a historic first for Jamaica, according to NOAA’s database.
Only two Cat 5 hurricanes have passed within 70 miles of Jamaica, and neither made landfall.
In 2004, Ivan killed 17 people, left 18,000 people homeless, and triggered landslides/floods on the island. Allen struck northern Jamaica in 1980, killing eight people and leaving 4,000 to 5,000 people homeless.
(07:18 EDT) Winds May Be 30% Stronger at Higher Altitudes
From the meteorologist Jennifer Gray:
Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in Jamaica, and as Melissa slowly moves over the island, devastating hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this morning and continue through most of the day.
The National Hurricane Center warns: “Total structural failure is likely within the eyewall, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds may be up to 30 percent stronger over hills and on windward sides of hills and mountains.”
(06:58 EDT) ‘A Frightening Situation’ for Jamaica
From senior writer Chris DeWeese:
“This is a scary situation for Jamaica,” the country’s Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, Matthew Samuda, said in an interview with BBC World Service’s Newsday programme. According to Samuda, 70% of Jamaica’s population lives within 3.1 miles of the sea.
“We hope we’ve done enough in terms of preparation,” he said, adding that authorities spent the past week providing residents with information about shelters around the island. But during hurricane preparations, Samuda said authorities had difficulty convincing residents to go to shelters because, in his words, they felt they had to “protect their property rather than their lives first.”
(06:31 EDT) How Rare Are Category 5 Landfalls?
Hurricane Irma was near Cuba on September 9, 2017. (NASA/NOAA GOES Project)
From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:
Category 5 landfalls in the Atlantic Basin are rare (thankfully), but perhaps not as rare as you might think.
Of the 17 different hurricanes that have occurred in the last 101 years, at least one Cat 5 has made landfall. 2017s Hurricane Irma It created four separate Cat 5 land approaches from Barbuda to northern Cuba.
The last time this happened was about six years ago, when Hurricane Dorian passed northwest of the Bahamas.
The busiest of the Atlantic Basin Cat 5 coastal approaches are:
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With lowest pressure: 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys hurricane (892 millibars)
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With maximum sustained winds: Dorian 2019 and Labor Day 1935 hurricane (185 mph)
(06:08 EDT) Jamaica Will Be Changed Forever
From the meteorologist Tiffany Savona:
Powerful words from The Weather Channel storm chaser Jim Cantore:
“What matters is Jamaica and the nearly 3 million people on this island. Black River, Parottee, Great Bay, Montego Bay and Trelawny are just a few of the places that will change forever in the next 18 hours.”
(05:45 EDT) Melissa’s Death Toll Already 7
From the author Renee Straker:
When Melissa’s outer bands impacted Jamaica, three people died there in addition to the four deaths blamed on the storm in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Another person is missing in the Dominican Republic.
Due to Melissa’s life-threatening storm surge and winds, Jamaican government officials were concerned that there were only about 1,000 people in open shelters across the island on Monday.
(05:24 EDT) Unprecedented in 174 Years
AP Photo/Matias Delacroix
Hurricane records in Jamaica date back 174 years, and Melissa is on track to become the strongest hurricane to touch down on the island nation in nearly two centuries, according to the Associated Press. All possible preparations have been completed and now the country is preparing for what could be one of its longest days ever.
“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness told the media. “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”
(05:00 EDT) Stronger Than Katrina
CIRA/NOAA
As of the 5 a.m. EDT update, Hurricane Melissa’s minimum central pressure is 901 mb. This is stronger than the peak of Katrina in 2005, which bottomed out at 902 mb. Wilma holds the record for lowest minimum central pressure in the Atlantic at 882 mb; We don’t expect Melissa to threaten that record.
Melissa is currently located just 185 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and has maximum sustained winds of 275 mph. It is expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane when it makes landfall today.
