The China Opportunity: to own America’s international crown

The Trump administration’s flagrant display of international lawlessness regarding Venezuela invites other rogue states to follow suit, but Michael Pascoe He argues that this also provides China with an opportunity to rise.

There is nothing new in the US changing governments it does not like, especially in Latin America. The Monroe Doctrine, with its various interpretations, has a history of two centuries.

However, the Trump gang’s Venezuela adventure is quite arrogant and coincides with an unstable period in terms of international relations. I guess adding kidnapping to the existing crimes of murder, piracy, and extortion is one small step for Donald Trump, but one giant leap for other despotic rulers looking for precedent.

A. New York Times investigation Just over a week ago, he exposed the machinations and motives of three key players attacking Venezuela. For Secretary of State Marco Rubio, it was Venezuelan support for Cuba, for Homeland Security Advisor and “Prime Minister” Stephen Miller, it was drugs and immigration, and for Trump, of course, it was oil.

This was never because three-time elected President Nicolas Maduro successfully stole an election (was Trump jealous?) and was a despicable dictator oppressing his people. For God’s sake, some of Trump’s most beloved allies are feudal sectarian murderers.

Whatever the reason, kidnapping, bombing, murder and piracy were illegal. For the United States Government to say otherwise is just nonsense, no matter how many media stenographers repeat it.

Oona Hathaway, a Yale Law School professor and president-elect of the American Association of International Law, stated this in the New Yorker report:

“What is dangerous here is the idea of ​​a President deciding that a leader is illegitimate and then invading the country and possibly installing someone backed by the Administration.

What will stop Russia and China?

If that were the case, that would be the end of international law, that would be the end of the UN charter, that would be the end of any legal limitation on the use of force. And if the President can do that, what’s to stop a Russian leader or a Chinese leader or anyone with the power to do that? “We support Ukraine and its war against Russia, and Putin makes much the same argument about Zelensky.”

In his proposed “deal” for Ukraine, Trump has already endorsed Putin’s worldview, which may be true, that invading and occupying Ukrainian territory will give Russia the right to protect it.

Putin is the direct winner of Trump’s raid on Venezuela. *

Of concern for our region, and particularly for Australia, which has staked its strategic future on being a vassal cog in America’s military deterrent against China, is the empowerment that Xi Jinping may see in Trump’s precedent.

As we have mentioned before, the world and the international order are slipping under our feet while our government stupidly moves forward with the mentality of the 1960s. The Trump gang has said it quite loudly: America owns the Americas, Europe will be left to itself and/or Russia, and China’s military rise is recognized and accepted in Asia.

Australia’s security abandoned to the frenzy of US empire decline

China’s hawkish squadrons may shout that if China wants to attack Taiwan, it can claim that it has more “legal” rights than the United States has in Venezuela. The US, Australia and almost everyone else officially agree that Taiwan is part of China; One China policy. If China invades Taiwan, this would theoretically be an internal matter.

But this is where Trump’s America once again presents China with an opportunity. Every American assault on the old international order, its abandonment of treaties, its retreat from global aid commitments, its climate denialism, its disrespect for the UN,

It makes China look stable and reliable in comparison.

China’s “Wolf Warrior” era was short-lived and turned out to be a mistake. The economic pressure Beijing has tried to exert on Australia has backfired. Trump’s tariff spree and indiscriminate deportation fines and sanctions later left wolf warriors looking like labrador puppies.

a boon for china

China particularly benefited as the Gaza war turned into genocide and America’s continued full support for Netanyahu. Although not for the first time in this area, it is important to remember that most of the world is not in the American camp like us or the Chinese camp like North Korea.

Most countries have a healthy suspicion of the dangerous nature of great powers throwing their weight around, flexing their power.

Modern China is unique in that it had a relatively peaceful rise as a superpower. The strange border conflict with India and the clashes in the South China Sea are nothing like the rivers of blood shed by other great powers.

Sinophobes’ warning that Xi might think “If Trump and Putin can do it, so can I” needs to be balanced with the opportunity to prove he is superior and gain by not doing so.

Taiwan and Greenland

Additionally, a war that kills Han Chinese would be expensive and counterproductive with no upside. The Taiwan issue remains a useful domestic tool for mobilizing nationalism; It’s a problem that doesn’t need to be solved.

A war that undermines China’s rising international standing, that’s the kind of stupidity Trump can tolerate.

By the way, I wonder how well the people of Greenland sleep at night.

*If you’re an observer of hypocrisy, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s response to Trump’s attack is confusing, to say the least:

“This morning the United States committed an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This is extremely alarming and reprehensible.”

“The excuses used to justify such actions are unfounded. Ideological hostility prevailed over commercial pragmatism and the desire to build relationships based on trust and predictability.”

“In the current situation, it is important, above all, to prevent further escalation of tensions and to focus on finding a way out of the situation through dialogue.”

AUKUS. Deal of the century! …for Americans

Michael Pascoe is an independent journalist and commentator with five decades of experience in print, television and online journalism here and abroad. His book, Summertime of Our Dreams, was published by Ultimo Press.