ET Now Global Business Summit 2026: Multipolarity is new world order; but without rules, instability will only deepen
The discussion was moderated by KPMG partner, consultant Pier Stefano Sailer.
Opening the discussion, Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive officer and chief economist of the European Policy Centre, noted that there is a sharp distinction between the reality of multipolarity and the absence of a coherent global order.
“Multipolarity is a reality, but this does not necessarily mean that we will reach a new world order,” he said, stating that a world without rules “is very dangerous, it threatens security, it threatens prosperity, it threatens democracy.”
Zuleeg said that while the rules are likely to be weaker than in the past, with global powers increasingly violating existing norms, countries with an interest in a common order “need to come together and define what those rules will look like.”
UN economist and former deputy secretary-general Ajay Chhibber argued that the collapse of the old order cannot be explained solely by Washington’s recent actions. “All empires… began to rot from within,” he said, describing the postwar “Pax Americana” as an American empire whose institutions (the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF and the World Trade Organization) were built by the United States itself.
The erosion of that order, he said, is reflected in internal divisions within the leading force as well as others’ gaming of the rules. Pointing to China’s role in global institutions and trade, Chhibber said, “The collapse of the world order is not only due to America, but also to other players playing by the rules.” he said.
He argued that India should deepen trade ties beyond China as countries seek resilience. “Countries like India must increasingly find trade agreements with countries other than China,” he said. Vince Cable, former secretary of state for business, innovation and skills and chairman of the UK trade council, framed today’s turmoil in long-term structural terms. “Back in 1990, the so-called north… had 60% of the world economy. It’s now down to 40%,” he said, attributing this relative decline to the rise of China and India and linking it to “the MAGA movement in America and the populist movements in Europe.”
Cable outlined scenarios ranging from a “global west” aligning emerging markets against China to a looser, multipolar environment with bilateral agreements, warning that the latter risks eroding international public goods.
“No one is taking responsibility… agreements on trade rules, climate protection, the law of the sea,” he said, arguing that this was “a time when arguments for restoring a reformed multilateral system are vital.”
Klisman Murati, founder and chief executive of Pareto Economics, challenged the language often used to describe the new order. “What we have is not multipolarity… fragmented polarity,” he said, arguing that countries have different types of influence over energy, technology and resources.
Lumping them together, he said, is “a very low-resolution way of looking at the world” and has no use for businesses or policymakers. Murati said that changes between world orders occur gradually and that it is difficult to determine when a new order will begin.
Promoting a perspective that appreciates the ambitions of all countries, not just the greatest powers, he said, “Things happen little by little until one day I wake up and feel like this is nothing like I’ve ever experienced before.”
CAN THE GLOBAL SOUTH DELIVER GROWTH?
The so-called Global South is a “very diverse group of countries” ranging from fragile states like Afghanistan and Somalia to economies in decline due to “high levels of corruption, very poor governance and massive debt accumulation,” Chhibber said. But it struck a hopeful note for a subset of major emerging economies. “There’s another group of countries that are doing well, like India, like much of Southeast Asia,” he said, arguing that if India, Vietnam and Indonesia “get their act together and move forward and grow rapidly,” they could become the next engines of global growth.
“I bet India will become a very important hub,” he said, adding that India’s rise could bring its neighbors such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal along.
WHAT DOES RESILIENCE MEAN FOR EUROPE?
Zuleeg said Europe is undergoing rapid change. Arguing that resilience now includes defence, energy and competitiveness, he said, “Europe’s history holiday is over.”
The biggest challenge, he said, is Russia. “We have to make sure we are resilient to the threat… not just an offensive war against Ukraine… this is a hybrid war against all of Europe.” While energy resilience is equally critical in the wake of the “weaponisation of Russian gas”, the return of Donald Trump to the White House means Europe can no longer rely on old security certainties.
“We must take responsibility for defense and security,” he said, adding that Europe also needs to develop a “much more common approach” on competitiveness and energy.
RISING CENTERS OF POWER
Murati said his firm’s Global Power Index, based on “10 different metrics” and “30 years of historical data”, showed India’s sharp rise. “India now ranks sixth in the world on the global power index… 30-odd years ago it was 24th,” he said, calling it “the highest increase, faster than any other country in the world.”
Urging India to abandon labels such as “global South”, he argued that such groupings indicate poor understanding.
“The real meaning of the Global South is that poor countries and India are growing faster than that label can capture,” he said.
Regarding rising powers, Murati said, “India is definitely a rising power. Indonesia is another great power,” and emphasized that future influence will depend on how countries manage competition and reform.
LESSONS THAT GOVERNMENTS STILL HAVE NOT LEARNED
Drawing on his crisis management experience, Cable warned that governments were unprepared for “grey swans, the known unknowns”. He cited three lessons: “fiscal discipline, debt management”, noting that “many countries are not prepared”; banking discipline, where regulators are under pressure to “relax” rules despite the risk of future shocks; and the need to keep central banks independent.
“Once you lose that… the markets will see the monetary system as simply a way of printing money,” he said, adding that “some of the mainly developed economies… are not in a good shape to face big new shocks,” while some emerging markets may now be better positioned because “they have had terrible shocks in the past but have learned to manage them”.
The panel’s warning was consistent: multipolarity without credible rules risks disorder; resilience now includes safety, energy and competitiveness; and the balance of power is shifting from developed countries to emerging engines such as India and Southeast Asia.
