Starmer expected to announce exit plan that will clear way for Burnham to become PM | Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable for his departure on Monday morning, paving the way for Andy Burnham to become prime minister in the autumn without a formal contest.

Cabinet ministers said Starmer would announce his intentions outside No 10 Downing Street and begin the process of appointing Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade.

No 10 officials still insisted that Starmer had pledged to fight against the expected leadership challenge from Burnham, who returned to Westminster with a landslide win in the Makerfield byelection.

But with more than half a dozen cabinet ministers privately telling him his time was up and the added pressure of a hostile cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the prime minister spent the weekend at his Checkers-area retreat finalizing a possible exit plan.

While other options remain open, Starmer and his inner circle began working on drafts of a resignation speech on Saturday; The most likely timeline involved him remaining in office until the autumn, allowing a new leader to rally Labor troops at the party’s annual conference at the end of September.

It is understood he will do so without discussing his plan with Burnham since the Makerfield result.

“Logically the best thing for both Andy and Keir would be for this to happen in September,” a cabinet minister said. “Andy does not have a team ready to go to Downing Street and needs time to prepare. This will also allow him to create a flight path for Keir’s departure.”

One obvious uncertainty is whether Burnham will be the only candidate that will allow for an effective coronation, or whether other rivals can emerge and win the necessary support.

Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary last month amid efforts to force Starmer to resign, said last week he would enter any contest and had the necessary support of 81 MPs to do so; His allies said over the weekend that was still the plan.

Some MPs say a contest that would allow Burnham’s platform to be tested would be welcome. However, there is a growing assumption that Streeting will not be able to compete because he either does not have the required MPs or will almost certainly lose the votes of Labor MPs and is wary of derailing preparations for the next government.

If Streeting challenged Burnham, it is possible that others would seek to join, including one or more women in the cabinet, to avoid an all-male contest.

Although Starmer said he would speak to Burnham after the weekend, it is understood he may decide not to and has not spoken to Streeting. Some in Starmer’s inner circle believe that making the arrangements for the departure unilaterally would allow him to claim that he was doing so on his own terms.

A government source nevertheless said an autumn date looked likely: “I expect Keir to do what is best for the country and Andy doesn’t look ready at the moment.”

A later date seems unlikely, given that time is needed to prepare for a politically critical budget in late autumn.

Early preparations for a possible takeover have already begun, with the Prime Minister’s chief secretary, Darren Jones, meeting with Louise Haigh, a key member of Burnham’s team, and further discussions are expected.

While Starmer has refrained from resigning from any ministry or even calling for new public opinion to go his way since the Makerfield results, seven cabinet ministers are known to have told him since the May local elections that he should consider his future for the good of the party and the country.

One cabinet minister said: “There was a view that resignations would be necessary if Keir’s public view remained his private view (that he would meet any challenge).” But “a change in his mind appears to have occurred” throughout Sunday, they said, making it less likely that will happen.

Even late last week, some of Starmer’s friends were insistent that he should fight, saying it was utterly presumptuous for Burnham and his team to expect a prime minister who won an overwhelming majority less than two years ago to step aside for a regional mayoralty from parliament since 2017.

But as the apparent lack of support for Starmer became clearer, even allies began to accept the existence of a new reality.

Starmer-loyal trade minister Peter Kyle, who was sent to speak on behalf of the government on Sunday, was forced to admit, albeit implicitly, that the Prime Minister’s days appear to be numbered.

“I don’t want to come here and be mistaken that there is no process, that there is no force at work to challenge the prime minister as leader – that is clearly the case,” he told the BBC.

Kyle said he spoke to Starmer at length on Friday and gave him advice, but refused to say what it was. Kyle explained that Starmer “cares deeply about the country’s best interests.”

Kyle said of Labor: “We’re a tight group of people and we’re facing a period of political uncertainty at the moment and we need to find a way through that that puts country first. That’s what we’re trying to do.”

Asked whether he would like a full contest to see who could replace Starmer rather than Burnham’s coronation, Kyle said contests were “better wherever possible but this has to be balanced with the needs to maintain a party’s authority”.

He called on Labor to “learn from the Conservatives and make sure that any changes that may or may not happen are made in a functional way and in a way that allows the government to focus on the needs of the people.”