WA braces for Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it tracks ‘very unusual’ path towards Perth
Western Australia is bracing for the impact of Tropical Cyclone Narelle, which has redeveloped off the coast, and there are predictions Perth could be in the line of fire over the weekend.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it is the first time since 2005 that a cyclone has affected three tropical states and territories (NT, Queensland and WA) at once, and could also make history as the first cyclone to cause significant impacts in Perth by moving further south.
Senior meteorologist Angus Hines said there was no other hurricane that could compare.
Hines said 15 tropical cyclones have caused some impact on Perth in the past 100 years, or one every 6.6 years, but not as severe as what Narelle could have had it followed one of two predicted paths.
The cyclone could also turn inland sooner, hitting the Wheatbelt coastal towns of Geraldton or Kalbarri instead of Perth.
“It’s unique as a weather system… Tropical Cyclone Ingrid was the last time a similar track was created, over 20 years ago, but it reached the Kimberley and didn’t travel much further down,” he said.
“It would be very unusual for this system to extend all the way to Perth.
“Tropical Cyclone Narelle is the tenth cyclone to hit Australia this season, which is very good on average, but its impact further south suggests it is stronger than normal.”
Favorable weather conditions, including warm waters and a lack of wind shear that usually slows hurricanes, contributed to the distance traveled.
Hines said there isn’t yet enough research to determine whether global warming is causing longer-lasting hurricanes or whether they will occur in the future, but it is a possibility.
“We also think we will see a change in weather patterns due to warmer temperatures, there will be fewer tornadoes, but they will be a higher category and will cause a greater impact when they occur,” he said.
“This will be a gradual change that will occur over several decades.”
The cyclone began its journey last week, developing as a category 5 across the Coral Sea and making landfall in North Queensland as a category 4 before continuing its journey into the NT and wreaking havoc.
Vulnerable communities, including the recently inundated Katherine, faced new flooding, although it had receded to tropical levels as the hurricane passed.
The Kimberley has also been hit by stormy conditions created by the tropical low, with 165 millimeters of rain falling in the last few days.
The system is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone off the coast of Broome on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
It is possible that it will re-develop into a category 4 system on Thursday, causing strong winds and large waves along the Pilbara coast, and then revert back to category 3 as it passes Carnarvon.
Hines said the worst weather was expected for Perth on Sunday, with up to 100 millimeters of rain expected between Geraldton and Perth.
If the storm continues its path along the coast, some rain is also possible in Esperance and Albany.
“He went through a series of intensities throughout his extraordinary life,” Hines said.
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Holly Thompson is a journalist at WAtoday specializing in education and the environment.Connect with: X or email.
