Expected inflation rise unlikely to faze Reserve Bank
Fresh figures are expected to show that inflation is boldly below the target rate of the Australian Reserve Bank.
In July, the Consumer Price Index will be published on Wednesday by the Australian Statistical Office.
The monthly indicator is expected to be 2.3 percent with a significant increase in the growth of 1.9 percent recorded in June.
However, it would still be lower than RBA’s midpoint of 2-3 percent of the target band.
ABS is trying to raise the monthly indicator until November, including a comprehensive price range in the economy, but for now it offers a missing instant image.
This means that the monthly figure is less reliable inflation indicator than the three -month data series on which RBA’s interest rate decisions are based.
However, if the bank offers great surprises, it will be closely ignored.
Analysts in JP Morgan are expected to be directed further with strong growth in food prices affected by seasonal factors.
JP Morgan’s Ben Jarman, Tom Kennedy and Tom Ryan said, “In terms of Drags, July, Tom has been a soft month for holiday travel and accommodation prices in the post -locking period, and we are looking for a more open decline in the upcoming data.”
RBA showed that a few minutes after the 11-12 August meeting on Tuesday, the bank’s board of directors was further determined by the cutting rates, but not sure how fast it should act.
Traders are pessimistic about the chance of another deduction at the next meeting in September, but the decisions of the Board of Directors will “be determined on the basis of the meeting with incoming data”.
If the upcoming data indicate that inflation and the labor market are weaker than expected, the probability of a second straight ratio deduction will receive support.
The data published in the online business market on Wednesday showed that annual growth in the salaries advertised in four years in July fell to the lowest level.
Seek Senior Economist Blair Chapman, “This is probably reflects the ongoing lightening in the labor market tension, employment increase, 0.5 percent of 0.5 percent from 12 months to 2025, more than June 2024, and less people who change jobs,” he said.
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