EXPLAINED | Strait Of Hormuz Tensions: Can Iran Disrupt Global Oil Markets Amid Protests? | World News
As widespread protests sweep Iran, the world is watching the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but important waterway through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil flows. With Tehran blaming the United States and Israel for the unrest and threatening retaliation, analysts warn that even temporary disruptions there could lead to higher oil prices and trigger global economic instability.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz Important?
The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide passage between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Despite its narrow width, it is one of the most vital sea crossing points on the planet. In 2025, approximately 13 million barrels of crude oil per day (almost a third of global seaborne flows) passed through the strait, as well as significant amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
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Major oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the UAE rely heavily on this route to transport energy to global markets. The economic security of countries such as China, Japan, India and South Korea, which consume approximately 80% of these shipments, is closely tied to the stability of the strait.
Can Iran Close the Strait?
While a full-scale blockade is unlikely, experts say Iran could significantly disrupt shipping. Daniel E Mouton of the Atlantic Council states that Iran has 5,000-6,000 naval mines and a fleet of 25 submarines that can quickly threaten commercial traffic.
Iran also maintains an extensive coastal defense network that includes thousands of UAVs, such as Khalij-e Fars ballistic missiles, Hormuz 1 and 2 missiles, and Noor cruise missiles, as well as Martyr-class drones previously deployed by the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
“While a complete closure of the strait would be beyond Iran’s reach, it could certainly temporarily stop or slow down commercial traffic,” Mouton said. But any blockade against the superior US Navy would be short-lived, he added. History backs this up: In 1988, an Iranian attempt to mine the strait triggered Operation Praying Mantis, in which the US Navy inflicted heavy damage on Iranian forces.
Global Oil Impacts
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 30% of world trade in oil and one-third of LNG shipments. Forbes and CNBC warn that any significant disruption could immediately send crude oil prices higher. A complete oil shutdown could boost prices by $10-$20 a barrel, while halving oil flows for a month could boost prices by nearly 30% to more than $110 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.
Even short-term disruptions would shake global markets and increase costs for major importers such as China and India. Citigroup’s projects for long-term disruptions could cause oil prices to rise to $90 per barrel.
Temporary Threat, Lasting Impact
Iran may not be able to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but its ability to deploy mines, missiles and drones means temporary disruptions remain a powerful geopolitical tool. In a world where energy markets are delicately balanced, even a brief disturbance in this strategic waterway could ignite oil prices and create ripple effects across the global economy.
