Explosives found near pipeline ‘likely a Russian provocation’, says military expert | Hungary
The amount of explosives discovered in Serbia last week would not have been enough to destroy the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, leading one expert to conclude that it was likely a Russian intelligence plot aimed at influencing upcoming elections in Hungary.
A former Ukrainian major general and munitions expert told the Guardian that his company’s calculations showed that: 4 kilos of explosives The pipe, which was recovered by Serbia’s military security agency in Kanjiža, is unlikely to be seriously broken.
Experts from the firm Andromeda analyzed the steel and polypropylene connection that carries Russian gas to Hungary via Türkiye, Bulgaria and Serbia, and calculated the amount of explosives they believe would cause serious damage.
Mykola Zentsev made a private prediction, saying that a much larger amount would be needed to be successful. “Four kilograms are not enough to stop the gas pipeline,” Zentsev said.
He added that even if placed optimally, 4kg of plastic explosives “will likely cause only localized damage or limited penetration, which can be repaired within a few days without causing long-term supply disruption”.
“This is incompatible with the goal of a classic act of sabotage aimed at disabling infrastructure for weeks or months,” Zentsev said, supporting “the conclusion that the incident was probably a provocation.”
On Sunday, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán said that Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić had informed him about the discovery of explosives. Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó hinted that Ukraine might be responsible for what he described as “an attack on our sovereignty”.
The incident was widely covered in the media ahead of Sunday’s elections in Hungary, where the pro-Russian Orbán fell behind in the polls and is struggling for political survival.
Péter Magyar, leader of the Hungarian opposition, accused Orbán of “trying to instill fear in his own people through false flag operations” and “following the advice of Russian agents.” Ukraine denied involvement; This conclusion was confirmed by the head of the Serbian Military Security Service responsible for the investigation.
Zentsev argued that, in his opinion, “the main beneficiaries of this situation are probably the current Hungarian government, which has gained an additional political advantage ahead of the elections, and Russia, which is trying to use such events to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the civilized world.”
Under Orbán, Hungary is one of the few EU countries that has chosen to remain close to Russia and buy its gas and oil. Budapest also blocked the approval of a 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine in March following a dispute with Kiev over the repair of the separate Druzhba oil pipeline, part of which runs through Ukraine to Eastern Europe.
Serbia’s Vučić said last Sunday that explosives could “endanger many lives” and cause serious damage to the Balkan Stream pipeline. They were found in two backpacks in Kanjiža “a few hundred meters from the gas pipeline”.
But Zentsev said there was no effort to place explosives in the pipeline based on publicly available evidence, and a Ukrainian close to the country’s security services said he believed the incident was likely a false flag operation carried out by Russia’s GRU military intelligence.
Reflecting on the military aspect of the incident, Zentsev said: “This meets the standards of the GRU.” Last month, Magyar accused Orbán of inviting GRU agents to help him in his re-election bid. The Russian embassy in Budapest denied this and described suggestions of GRU involvement as “clearly false information”.
