One Nation win grim warning for major party future
Analysts say the coalition could be reduced to a regional remnant and Labor seats could come under threat if One Nation builds on its breakthrough victory in the by-election.
David Farley will travel to Canberra after the One Nation candidate won a landslide victory in the southern NSW seat of Farrer on Saturday.
His defeat of independent Michelle Milthorpe ended 77 years of coalition rule in the electorate and marked the first time his party had won seats in the federal lower house.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and MP Barnaby Joyce have since flagged off the aim of increasing lower house totals, including in urban areas such as western Sydney.
Former Labor Party strategist and leading pollster Kos Samaras said the result could be repeated not just regionally but also in some outer suburban seats.
“For seats like Lindsay (in Sydney’s west), I could definitely see this seat becoming an interesting contest,” the RedBridge director told AAP.
While National candidates were allowed to run in Farrer due to Sussan Ley vacating the seat following her ouster as party leader, the Liberals’ primary vote fell by more than 30 per cent to 12.4 per cent.
Mr Farley dominated outside the regional center of Albury, where Ms Milthorpe received the most votes.
Mr. Samaras said the Liberals faced the prospect of being pushed out of urban seats altogether and becoming a remnant in the regions.
“I would say every regional electorate held by the Nats and the Liberal party is in the bloc,” he said.
“If you’re getting close to 40 percent of the primary vote in Farrer, then it’s going to be much higher in inland voters across the country.”
Labor was less vulnerable to a similar showdown; Mr. Samaras pointed out that Pauline Hanson has a voter approval rating of minus 57.
“That doesn’t mean Labor doesn’t have a problem,” he said.
“Maybe it will lose a seat or two to One Nation.
“Seats like Hunter… that will pose a threat, but it is much easier for Labor to challenge One Nation because they are a contrast.”
Election analyst Ben Raue said it was too early to gauge how much damage One Nation could do to suburban seats and the next federal election was too far away.
“If we had a federal election right now, One Nation would do pretty well and win a lot of seats,” he said.
“I don’t think this (by-election) tells us they’re going to sweep the cities. They didn’t win Albury.”
As the coalition turns to its right to appease those defecting to One Nation, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jim Chalmers said Labor was the last party standing in the “sensible centre”.
Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson has not closed the door on the coalition partnering with One Nation to form a minority government in a bid to defeat Labor at the next election.
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