Democrats taking the Senate? Seriously? Despite Trump’s sinking polls, it’s probably a media fantasy

Let’s not get carried away here.

Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are somewhere between nearly impossible and zero.

And yet it suddenly became a major topic of discussion in the media.

It’s like the Rube Goldberg mechanism: If this happens and that happens and the other unlikely thing somehow falls into place, the ball lands in the cup.

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Nearly everyone, including many Republicans I spoke to privately, agrees that Democrats will take the House of Representatives in November. The difference might not be huge, given that most incumbents were re-elected, but the opposition party’s control of the floor, committees and a blizzard of investigations would completely transform the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

NBC’s latest poll shows 63 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Ah.

But now mainstream pundits are so caught up in such plummeting poll numbers and the unpopularity of the war that they believe Democrats can tread water and possibly ride that flood into Senate control.

They even mention Texas.

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Come on. Remember the endless hype around Beto O’Rourke, who lost the Senate and gubernatorial elections? Texas hasn’t elected a statewide Democrat since the 1990s. And yet every few years it’s like “this is it! Texas is ready to go blue!”

I know, Democratic candidate James Talarico has raised truckloads of money since CBS refused to air the Stephen Colbert interview.

And in politics you can never say never.

Much will depend on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Cornyn is seen by many Republicans as too moderate. But Paxton was impeached in 2023 on charges including bribery (he was later acquitted), settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and was divorced by his wife, who said he was having an affair.

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas (left), faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton (right) in a tough GOP primary runoff. (Getty Images)

So yeah, it’s a crazy year.

And yes, if the war ends, much will depend on the recovery of the economy; This is a tired cliché that is now true.

New York Times examines the question in a piece so full of caveats that its corporate ass is completely covered up:

“Of course, a blue wave isn’t guaranteed, and even if it were, it wouldn’t be guaranteed that Democrats would flip two reliably Republican states. But a viable path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”

This is called tiptoeing into the water. The carefully crafted Nate Cohn piece acknowledges that Democratic candidates must win seven of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!

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So this is about as likely as the world seeing the dark side of the moon.

Let’s try another analogy.

Seven out of seven are less likely to win the lottery.

It’s less likely than not that gas prices will suddenly drop. That’s why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices dropping below $3 per gallon “may not happen until next year.”

“It’s completely wrong,” the president says.

Here’s the summary.

Every Dem in the Senate today represents a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020, because the party did so poorly in red states. (One example: When Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.)

And – here’s another warning from the Times! – not a single party has managed to reverse two States that have moved the other way politically since 2008.

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The evaluation is based primarily on the quality of the Democratic candidates entering the midterms.

In North Carolina, that person is former governor Roy Cooper.

Ohio has former senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 during Trump’s victory.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is already ahead in the polls.

But Maine is weird. The strong opponent was supposed to be Governor Janet Mills. But in the primary, he trails progressive, first-time runner and veteran Graham Platner 2 to 1.

Platner admitted to wearing a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported a series of posts in which Platner called himself a communist, said rural Americans were “racist” and “stupid,” described all police officers as “bastards,” and used the word “retard” several times. He said these were stupid jokes. Elizabeth Warren also campaigned with him over the weekend.

Sullivan harbormaster Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills are vying in a heated Democratic primary race to defeat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in November. (Getty Images)

Moreover, can either candidate unseat independent Republican candidate Susan Collins?

At the same time, Democrats must defend seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

Even the decidedly non-partisan Cook Political report shifted four Senate races to Democrats, but from Solid Republican to Likely Republican or Solid Republican to Tossup. Not exactly a slam dunk.

However, the Times’ news began to echo on television.

“Republicans Beginning to Worry About Losing the Senate,” an MS NOW banner blared.

Times’ final measure: “If a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to carry it to Senate control.”

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But here’s the thing. This is an off-year election. Let’s not forget: it all comes down to participation.

If Trump voters become demoralized, many may stay home. If Democratic voters are warned but not to the point of driving them to the polls, that will reduce the impact.

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If politics were predictable, priests and junkies would have far less material for endless debate.

Footnote: I’m ready to eat crow on November 3rd.