Fears Iran’s ‘second Strait of Hormuz’ could see petrol prices surge further | World | News
Fears are growing that Iran could target a vital second global shipping route in a move that risks further rising oil prices around the world. While much of the world’s attention is focused on events in the Strait of Hormuz, a global shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, an Iranian military official threatened to increase “insecurity in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and other straits, including the Red Sea.”
The narrow Red Sea passage connecting Europe to Asia’s energy supplies has been described as a potential “second Strait of Hormuz” due to its importance in global oil flows. Disruption here could have a direct knock-on effect on fuel costs worldwide. Danny Citrinowicz, a former senior Iran researcher for the Israel Defense Forces, said: Policy: “I have no doubt that eventually the Houthis will come in and do two things; the first is to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and the second is to try to prevent the Saudis from buying tankers. [its] Yanbu port receives oil.”
The Houthis disrupted global shipping through Bab al-Mandeb between 2023 and 2025 and never stopped threats to the region despite the ceasefire.
But closing the strait would mean a sharp escalation in Iran’s asymmetric tactics designed to maximize disruption in the face of overwhelming US military power.
Bab el-Mandeb is the fourth largest sea crossing point in the world.
Located between Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other, this region stretches just 20 miles at its widest point.
Despite its size, it is a lifeline for global trade. In addition to basic foodstuffs such as wheat, corn and coffee, vast quantities of goods pass through the corridor, from electronics to clothing, from furniture to everyday household items.
So far, the Houthis have avoided direct conflict; But analysts warn that this stance may not be valid if the conflict between the United States and Israel intensifies.
Even limited intervention could trigger major disruption, said Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group.
“If the Houthis decide to step aside and join this war — and even do so in a fairly small way, firing a few missiles, launching a few drones — then it becomes impossible to unload the tankers, and that goes from a disruption of 10 million barrels a day to a disruption of 15 million barrels a day. [million] “There is an outage of up to 17 million barrels per day,” he said.
He added that the knock-on effect on global markets could be serious, with crude oil prices potentially rising from $90-100 per barrel to as high as $150, which could be quickly felt by drivers and households around the world.
