Five races to watch on the day the 2026 midterm elections kick off
Tuesday is the first real moment for the 2026 midterm elections. This is the day the first polls close to begin the seven-month primary elections that will help determine who will win the House and Senate on Election Day, Nov. 3.
While Democrats seem likely to win the House and Republicans keep the Senate, much will depend on the results of the primaries leading up to the big day. Here are five early races on Tuesday that will show how the rest of the election might play out.
1. Texas Senate Republican Primary
Sen. John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas.
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Despite Senate Republicans and establishment donors pouring tens of millions of dollars into the Cornyn race, most surveys Point to Paxton as a pioneer. His history of opposing President Joe Biden and supporting President Donald Trump has made him a favorite with the MAGA crowd, with support from Turning Point USA, the influential group founded by Charlie Kirk.
But a Paxton victory in the primary means Republicans will likely need to invest millions more in the state to win in November. Paxton is plagued by scandal. He is in the midst of an acrimonious divorce, was impeached by the Texas House over allegations of corruption, and was indicted for securities fraud.
Trump did not endorse the race. He was full of praise for both Cornyn and Paxton when he visited Corpus Christi, Texas, on Friday, calling them “both great people.” He also mentioned Hunt.
The more money Republicans have to spend defending Texas overall, the less money there will be for other battleground states.
Hunt also casts himself as a more conservative choice than Cornyn. Although Hunt is not expected to win, it could lead to a runoff of the primary on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority of the votes.
2. Texas Senate Democratic Primary
State Rep. James Talarico, Democrat and U.S. Senate candidate from Texas, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Democrat from Texas and candidate for U.S. Senate, shake hands during a debate at the 2026 Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention on Saturday, January 24, 2026 in Georgetown, Texas, USA.
Bob Daemmrich | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Democrats hope this will be the year they win a statewide race in Texas, but their chances of doing so may depend on who emerges victorious in the primary.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett and State Rep. James Talarico are in a campaign that’s getting worse. The two have similar stances on issues, but their styles are very different.
Crockett, a civil rights attorney, is known as a fiery man with combative comebacks and violent messages. It is popular with Democratic voters who want their party to do more to fight the Trump administration, and has attracted both Black and progressive voters. final vote He showed each one ahead.
Talarico, a former school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, takes a much more measured approach, appealing to independents and moderate Republicans with a message of unity. His speeches resemble sermons and mix progressive values with Bible verses.
The winner of the primary could signal what campaign strategy Democrats will adopt in 2028.
3. Texas 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary
State Rep. Steve Toth (L) and Incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw.
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Crenshaw is the only Republican House member who did not have Trump’s support in the March 3 primary. While Crenshaw voted for Trump on all major issues, he split from Trump on issues including supporting aid to Ukraine and speaking out against false claims that Trump won the 2020 election.
Toth received the approvals Household Freedom Group As well as Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. But Crenshaw outmaneuvered Toth and spent more and had the backing of the House of Representatives’ official GOP campaign arm.
4. North Carolina 4th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Nida Allam (L) and Rep. Valerie Foushee
Reuters | Getty Images
In North Carolina’s 4th congressional district, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a primary challenge from county commissioner Nida Allam. Allam criticized Foushee for not doing enough to oppose Trump’s agenda and for taking money from pro-Israel AIPAC in previous elections.
Allam lost to Foushee in 2022, but the district has since been redrawn.
Foushee has support from prominent Democratic politicians and groups, including Gov. Roy Cooper, the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Allam is also backed by the Leaders We Deserve group, which is backed by progressive activist David Hogg, who supports Senator Bernie Sanders as well as challengers to incumbent Democrats. It also received donations from American Priorities, the balancing act of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
The race will also be an early test for pro-AI regulatory group Public Action First, which counts Anthropic among its donors. The Democratic arm of the group donated to Foushee.
5. Texas 23rd Congressional District Republican Primary
Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, attends the group’s press conference at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, March 25, 2025.
Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is embroiled in a scandal after Gonzales’ hometown newspaper, The San Antonio Express-News: notified in a text message From an aide who said he had an extramarital affair with her and then died by suicide.
The texts showed Gonzales pressuring his employee, Regina Santos-Aviles, for a “sexy photo.”
Gonzales faces several opponents, including YouTube star Brandon Herrera, who is close to beating him in 2024.
The results of the primary could lead Gonzales to decide to resign from Congress, something Gonzales has so far resisted. Republicans can only lose one vote in the House if they want to pass party-line voting legislation. That means leaving Gonzales would make it even harder for House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep his fragile majority together.
