Putin takes his war to space. What can go wrong?
Targeting communications satellites can impact things like satellite imagery, telecommunications, and broadband satellite internet access. Disruption of navigation and positioning systems can affect military operations as well as civil aviation. More than 12,000 satellites currently orbit the planet, according to the AP report, playing a critical role not only in broadcast communications but also in military operations, navigation systems such as GPS, intelligence gathering and economic supply chains. They are also key to early launch detection efforts that can warn of approaching missiles. This makes them a significant national security vulnerability and a prime target for anyone looking to undermine an enemy’s economy or military readiness, or to deal a psychological blow, as hackers pro-Russia did this year when they hijacked television signals to Ukraine and broadcast a Russian military parade.
Pistorius noted that two Russian reconnaissance satellites were recently detected to be tracking two IntelSat satellites used by the German Armed Forces and their allies. IntelSat is a commercial satellite services provider whose fleet is used by governments and companies in the United States and Europe. “Russia and China have rapidly expanded their space warfare capabilities in recent years: They can jam, blind, manipulate or kinetically destroy satellites,” Pistorius added, announcing a multibillion-dollar increase in funding for German space programs. The head of UK Space Command also sounded the alarm, saying Russian satellites were tracking British assets in space and disrupting them on a “weekly” basis. “They have payloads that can see our satellites and try to gather information from them,” Major General Paul Tedman told the BBC last month. Mixing is accomplished using ground-based infrastructure. Russia has spent years developing electronic warfare capabilities amid the war in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly said that Moscow has no intention of placing nuclear weapons in space. However, Russia also vetoed the UN Security Council resolution calling on member states not to develop space-based nuclear weapons in 2024. China abstained from the vote. In 2019, NATO announced that space was the “operational area” for the transatlantic alliance and years later announced that Article 5 would be valid in space. Article 5 includes the principle that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all members. But analysts at RAND argued that NATO must “accelerate” its space initiative or risk falling short at a critical time.
Armageddon in space
Nuclear weapons in space are more worrisome than normal satellite warfare. In 2024, US House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner said that Russia was developing nuclear anti-satellite weapons. Turner called on then-President Biden to step up the pressure to prevent Moscow from launching the weapon that would wipe out everything from GPS to cellphone service to the internet and eliminate many of the conveniences of modern life.
U.S. national security officials say Russia is developing a nuclear, space-based weapon designed to simultaneously destroy nearly every satellite in low Earth orbit, according to a report by the AP. The weapon will surge outwards, incorporating a physical attack that will destroy more satellites, while the nuclear component will be used to fry their electronics. After Turner issued a public warning about the technology, US officials declassified information about the weapon. Such a weapon could make low Earth orbit unusable for satellites for up to a year, Turner said. If used, the effects would be devastating: It could leave the United States and its allies potentially vulnerable to economic turmoil and even nuclear attack. Russia and China will also lose satellites, but they are believed to be less dependent on the same type of satellites, as the US Turner likens the weapon, which is not yet ready for deployment, to Sputnik, the Russian satellite that ushered in the space age in 1957. “If this anti-satellite nuclear weapon were put into space, it would be the end of the space age,” Turner said. “He should never be allowed into space. This is the Cuban Missile Crisis in Space.”
Why is Putin likely to use a space bomb?
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its third year, has revealed the limits of its conventional military power. To compensate for this weakness, Moscow has focused on developing ways to disrupt satellites that form the basis of US military operations. Historically, this meant pursuing non-nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) systems; but a U.S. effort to deploy vast networks of smaller satellites, similar to Ukraine’s use of Starlink during the war, has reduced the effectiveness of such weapons. As a result, Russia appears to be re-evaluating its nuclear-armed ASAT capabilities, according to the Carnegie report.
The report states that although President Vladimir Putin acknowledges that detonating a nuclear device in space carries enormous risks, he may view it as less dangerous than other options in the crisis. But such an attack would destroy satellites not only belonging to Western militaries but also those of other countries, including China and India, severely disrupting civilian systems and causing widespread chaos on Earth.
“But for Putin, these consequences may seem much less costly than losing a war against the United States (remember what happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi?) or detonating a nuclear weapon in the Earth’s atmosphere,” the report said.
Where does India stand in the space war?
India’s efforts to develop its space warfare capacity appear to be aimed at protecting itself against Chinese threats. In March this year, a surprising announcement by the United States pointed to advances in space warfare: Chinese defense satellites had conducted a “dogfight” exercise in low Earth orbits in 2024. General Michael Guetlein, Deputy Chief of US Space Operations, said: “With our commercial assets, we observed five different objects maneuvering in, out and around each other in space simultaneously and under control. We call this space dogfighting. They are applying tactics, techniques and procedures to conduct space operations in orbit from one satellite to another.”
A dogfight is an air battle between warplanes at close range. Dogfights, where satellites fight like warplanes, have now reached space.
A US military spokesman, who identified the satellites involved in the reported military exercise in space, confirmed that the “dogfights” took place in 2024. The officer added that five satellites were involved, three of which were Shiyan-24C experimental satellites, while the remaining two were Shijian-605 A and B, which were experimental spacecraft.
Two months later, in May, it was reported that India had also practiced a form of dogfighting in space. India has quietly carried out a historic space maneuver of its own, combining sophisticated scientific mastery with subtle strategic signals. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has successfully carried out a high-speed satellite rendezvous in space in its SPADEX (Space Docking Experiment) mission; this demonstrated not only technical capability but also future-proofing in the new frontier of orbital defence.
The SPADEX mission was initially launched to improve the autonomous docking and separation of two satellites that serve the maneuvers, space station activities and satellites that are the backbone of long-duration space missions. The two satellites were maneuvered to achieve synchronized, high-speed contact at orbital speeds of 28,800 km/h, approximately 28 times the speed of a commercial airliner. Flying at such speeds, this was a feat of enormous technical sophistication, as even the slightest miscalculation could have disastrous consequences. Similar to air combat training for fighter jets, satellites gradually close together under controlled conditions, pushing the limits of orbital control, real-time communications and autonomous control systems. Although no weapons were used, the exercise reflects the precision of maneuver that will be required in future space warfare.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a special statement in 2019 that India had successfully tested its first anti-satellite missile system, codenamed ‘Mission Shakti’. Prime Minister Modi said, “India has made a name for itself as an elite space power. Anti-satellite weapon ASAT successfully targeted a live satellite in low Earth orbit.” He also noted that shooting down a LEO satellite was a rare feat and was successfully completed within three minutes of launch.
India is the fourth country after the US, Russia and China to have such a space warfare capability. Although it is far behind three countries in this field, it is making rapid progress. As China continues to develop weapons (direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles, joint-orbit satellites, and electronic warfare) to contest or deny access to space, China is developing a “military space doctrine.”
