Geopolitics Of The Barrel: India’s Strategic Shift In The Russia-Venezuela Tug-Of-War Amid Sanction Risk | India News

India runs on oil. Almost all of them come from abroad. Now, two sanctioned giants – Russia and Venezuela – are vying for New Delhi’s attention. Let’s examine which one makes more sense for India from an economic, political and strategic perspective.

India is one of the world’s largest oil consumers. We need approximately 5 million barrels of oil every day to keep the country afloat. Since one barrel equals 159 liters, this means approximately 795 million liters per day. Think of it this way: Every car, bus, truck, plane, factory and power plant in India needs fuel. This is a huge amount.

India imports almost 90% of its crude oil because we cannot produce enough oil. This makes us one of the largest importers in the world. Before the Ukraine war in 2022, India received most of its oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United States, and very little from Russia. However, this changed dramatically after Western countries imposed harsh sanctions on Moscow for invading Ukraine.

India has imported crude oil worth around $144 billion (Rs 12.96 lakh crore) from Russia since 2022, making it Moscow’s second-largest buyer after China. The biggest reason is simple: price. Russia has offered deep discounts in 2022 and 2023 as it desperately needs buyers after Western sanctions cut off its traditional markets.

Even today, Russian crude oil is $10 to $15 per barrel (Rs 900 to Rs 1,350) cheaper than the international benchmark Brent crude, which is currently priced around $63 (Rs 5,670) per barrel. Even after shipping costs are added, the per barrel cost of Russian oil to India roughly ranges from $50 to $54 (Rs 4,500 to Rs 4,860). This is a huge savings when purchasing millions of barrels every day. As a result, Russia now supplies about 35% of India’s oil, or about 2 million barrels (318 million liters) per day.

However, this addiction brings with it increasing risks. Donald Trump, who is now the US President again, had previously threatened to impose a 25% tax on India in exchange for purchasing crude oil from Russia. He also supported a bill that would allow a massive 500 percent tariff on countries importing Russian oil. Imagine paying five times more in fines. As this pressure increased, India quietly began reducing its oil purchases from Russia.

Russia’s crude oil supplies to India fell to a three-year low of around 1.2 million barrels (190.8 million liters) per day in December 2025, according to The Indian Express. At the same time, India’s oil import bill has dropped sharply from $5.8 billion (Rs 52,200 crore) in October 2024 to just $3.55 billion (Rs 31,950 crore) in October 2025. India is clearly preparing for potential American sanctions.

So where does Venezuela fit into this picture? It’s not happening much right now. In 2024, India imported only 22 million barrels (3.498 billion liters) of Venezuelan crude oil; this accounts for only 1.5% of total imports. This is almost nothing.

But this wasn’t always the case. In the mid-2010s, Venezuela supplied about 12% of India’s oil. In 2013, bilateral oil trade reached $13 billion (Rs 1.17 lakh crore). Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, and India’s refineries were perfectly equipped to process heavy crude oil.

By 2020, US sanctions and payment barriers had reduced this trade to just $0.64 billion (5,760 billion rupees). Venezuela’s economy has collapsed, oil production has plummeted, and American sanctions have made doing business nearly impossible.

Now comes an interesting development. President Trump recently announced that Venezuela will deliver 30 to 50 million barrels (4.77 to 7.95 billion liters) of sanctioned oil to the United States. He said that this oil would be sold at market price and the revenues would be controlled by the US government. This could potentially open a door to India.

On paper, the cost of Venezuelan crude oil per barrel after shipment is likely to be around $60 (Rs 5,400). This makes it $7 to $10 per barrel (Rs 630 to Rs 900) more expensive for India than Russian crude. It could go even higher if priced against Brent crude. So why would India consider this? Because it reduces dependence on Russia and prevents America’s anger.

Venezuelan oil has another advantage: Indian refineries are already designed to process heavy, high-sulfur crude. Our infrastructure and expertise are ready.

But there are serious questions. Can Venezuela really increase production? Will American sanctions really ease? Will prices remain competitive? Nobody knows for sure.

For now, Russian oil remains a safer and cheaper option for India. It is reliable, discounted and arrives on time. Venezuelan crude could be important tomorrow, but only if prices, production and politics align properly.

India faces a classic dilemma: Choose the cheaper option and risk American sanctions, or pay more to stay politically safe. Until the situation is clear, India will continue to do what it does best; balancing economics with geopolitics one barrel at a time. Because after all, keeping 1.4 billion people on the move requires not only political decisions but also practical ones.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and Defense, Aerospace and Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)