Gold and silver’s historic rally could resume ‘as fog of war lifts’
Robin Kolvenbach, CEO of Argor-Heraeus, holds a kilo of silver and gold bullion at refinery and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus’ facility in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
The rally that has pushed gold and silver to record levels in 2025 could rebound if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC, as prices rose on Thursday.
spot gold It rose 1.2% to $4,750 an ounce early Thursday amid hopes the United States and Iran could move closer to a deal to end the 69-day war.
spot gold
US gold futures settled around $4,750.00, up 1.2%.
Meanwhile, spot silver It traded up 3% at $79.62 an ounce, and silver futures for July delivery were up 3.9%.
spot silver
Gold and silver have experienced record-breaking gains in 2025, rising 66% and 135% respectively for the year. However, 2026 saw much more volatile trading; Silver futures suffered their biggest single-day hit since the 1980s in late January, with gold down more than 10% from its January peak.
Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of turmoil has come under pressure as some of the factors behind its rise are questioned.
The potential for higher interest rates, a strengthening U.S. dollar resulting from the rise in oil prices and traders exiting positions have contributed to the recent decline, with the yellow metal in particular entering a “significant overbought” conflict, according to Ross Norman, chief executive of precious metals site Metals Daily.
This gives dealers a reason to take profits and the market to consolidate as traders sell their best-performing assets, he told CNBC.
Francis Tan, chief Asia strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, called the property “pretty useful” during the market turmoil in March in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.
“If you look at March when equities were selling off, you were getting a pretty strong gold return at that time for an investor with some gold allocation, and maybe you could take some off the table to cover some of your equity losses.
“So gold has certainly done its part as a safe haven.”
During the conflict, gold traded against both oil prices and the US dollar.
“Dollar and gold rallied, with the former witnessing hot money inflow due to contraction in energy supply, while the dollar gained value on safe-haven inflow,” Norman added. “The peace agreement indicates that these winds will ease, and we’re seeing that now. It’s as if the handbrake has been removed from gold and silver.”
Where next?
Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, has long maintained a bullish view on gold and silver, and his belief that further upside awaits the metals remains unwavering even as volatility continues in precious metals markets.
He sees the decline in gold and silver prices as a “consolidation phase,” he told CNBC on Thursday.
“This time precious metals showed a strong correlation with stocks. Both were mostly hurt by fears that inflation would raise interest rates,” Gijsels said. “In our world, interest rates are like gravity. When interest rates rise, gravity increases and all assets, including precious metals, are pulled down.”
As the Iran war dragged on—leading to price shocks and warnings of slowing economic growth—markets began pricing in a suspension of QE cycles in several major economies; Some central banks are now expected to raise interest rates to counteract the impact of inflated energy prices.
But optimism reemerged on Wednesday He reported that the United States and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement. Gijsels noted that precious metals have now started to recover along with stocks.
“We expect a resumption of the secular bull market in gold and silver, with the metals reaching all-time highs in the not-too-distant future, potentially this year,” he told CNBC.
When the fog of war clears, investors will return to the market for gold and silver.
Philippe Gijsels
Chief strategy officer of BNP Paribas Fortis
All the elements that brought gold and silver to this point are “still largely in place,” Gijsels said on Thursday.
“Central banks and governments will continue to shift from U.S. government paper to gold,” he told CNBC. “Because we live in an environment of structurally higher inflation, one needs to hold real assets. Precious metals are clearly part of that. [And] “As the fog of war lifts, investors will return to the market for gold and silver.”
He suggested that the decline in gold and silver prices in recent months “is not the end, but merely a pause in what will be the strongest and longest gold and silver bull market in history.”
Paul Williams, chief executive of gold and silver supplier Solomon Global, said in an email to CNBC on Thursday that it’s difficult to make predictions as the battle continues, especially for the more volatile silver. But like Gijsels, he said silver prices are still supported by the same fundamental factors that fueled the 2025 rally.
“While physical silver supply remains tight, strong demand from green technologies continues,” he said. “The US-Iran conflict has only underlined the strategic importance of solar energy. AI-related demand remains significant and growing, adding further pressure to an already strained supply/demand balance.”
Silver is used for a wide variety of industrial purposes and is a key component in many products, from computers to mobile phones, from solar panels to cars. While Williams said short-term volatility will likely continue until a permanent agreement between the United States and Iran is formalized, he said prices should be supported in the long term.
“I expect we may see more upside and bullish conditions as more people seek the safety and security of holding a physical asset outside of the traditional financial system,” he said.
“If a peace agreement is signed, silver will likely benefit from improved economic sentiment, stronger industrial demand and greater investor risk appetite. If talks fail, gold will likely lead the initial safe-haven move, but silver’s tighter physical market means silver could catch up very quickly.”
