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Goldman Sachs predicts new low for Bitcoin

Gold has had a very busy period last month since the start of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

However, Goldman Sachs maintains its gold bull thesis even though the precious metal has experienced one of its sharpest pullbacks in recent memory.

Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven reiterated their year-end target of $5,400 per ounce in a note to clients, according to Bloomberg. reported On April 2.

They noted that continued central bank purchases and two interest rate cuts expected in the US before December are expected to be the main drivers of the medium-term recovery.

Both gold and Bitcoin have traded with sharp, sentiment-driven swings since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February 2026.

Following its initial peaks, gold lost 6.60% last month as stock liquidations and tight monetary policy expectations put pressure on positioning.

At press time, an ounce of gold was trading at $4,676.55, following a 2.2% decline in the last 24 hours and an over 16% decline from the all-time high of $5,608 reached in January 2026.

Bitcoin has fallen along with stocks as institutional investors reduce exposure to volatile assets, reflecting the risk-aversion mood. However, at some moments it showed signs of more resistance than gold.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen just 1.8% and remains stuck between $60,000 and $70,000, with occasional moves above that value.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $66,852.50, down 2.4%, according to CoinGecko. But this is also a 46.9% decline from the all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

Goldman Sachs’ confidence is based on sustainable demand. Goldman expects central bank purchases to average around 60 tonnes per month as price volatility decreases. This will create a structural basis that supports gold’s multi-year rise.

But the near-term picture is a little darker.

Goldman flagged “tactical downside risks”, warning that gold could fall as low as $3,800 per ounce if the energy supply shock from the US-Iran conflict continues to worsen.

This would mean a drop in prices of around 19% at current levels.

The bank also addressed fears that some central banks might liquidate their gold reserves to defend their own currencies; this was a concern that had circulated since the beginning of the war. Goldman denied this, adding that Gulf countries were much more likely to sell US Treasuries, given their heavy use of dollar pegs.