Greater Manchester mayoral election: Burnham faces first big test since taking office as voters prepare to elect his replacement

Andy Burnham may still be learning the ropes of the job as prime minister, but his first election test next week will look much more familiar.

The then MP for Leigh left parliament in 2017 to become the first elected mayor of Greater Manchester with 63 per cent of the vote.

The new role, which broadly follows the London mayor model, was praised by its creator George Osborne as “a big moment for the north”, transferring powers from Westminster and Whitehall to the largest city district.

Mr Burnham had authority over planning, housing, policing, health and transport in the ten council areas that make up Greater Manchester – the city, Bury, Bolton, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan.

And he brought this role to national prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw his response to the government’s treatment of the region hail him as the ‘King of the North’.

Mr Burnham, a hugely popular figure in the North West of England, saw his re-election in 2021 win every council ward in Greater Manchester, before winning all but one council in 2024.

National coverage often incorrectly references Mr Burnham’s previous tenure as mayor of Manchester, but there is much more to the area than the city.

His time as mayor has seen many changes defined by the emergence of numerous towers in the city centre, as Manchester’s inner-city living standards have risen more than anywhere else in the UK since 2010.

The city region’s annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent over the past 10 years has meant that its economy is performing twice as well as the UK, but this growth has been mainly focused on the city itself.

And places like Oldham, Rochdale and Wigan (where Mr Burnham’s previous and current parliamentary seats are located) won’t necessarily thank you for being called Manchester.

Many people from the outer counties consider themselves to be from Lancashire rather than Greater Manchester, which was founded in the 1970s; This may partly explain the 32 percent turnout in the 2024 elections.

The towns and villages that make up these boroughs are largely working-class post-industrial Labor centres, but they are not the thriving metropolis of Manchester.

In a sense, the two key components of Labour’s electoral coalition are present in Greater Manchester: urban voters and those from ‘left behind’ England.

According to Bury-born Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, the area is “predominantly Labor territory” but “fairly socially conservative outside of Manchester”.

he said Independent: “Burnham’s popularity is mainstream, but there are still identity issues. Identity and place still matter.

“Politically there are some differences in control but not too much. The Liberal Democrats now control Stockport council, which has been in abeyance for years.

“No one is in charge in Oldham, Bolton has no overall control and the rest belongs to Labor.”

“But Reform made huge gains in the council elections. Labor would breathe a sigh of relief that only a third of the seats were up for grabs, because if there were all-out elections it is likely that Reform would now control some of Greater Manchester’s councils.”

The May election also saw the Green Party make significant gains in the city of Manchester, losing 1,500 council seats in England and giving up control of 30 local authorities, while Labor suffered grueling results across the country.

Those results were the death knell for Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership and marked the end of Mr Burnham’s tenure as mayor, who returned to parliament after comfortably beating Reform in the Makerfield by-election in June before assuming the leadership of the Labor Party.

This was Greater Manchester’s second parliamentary by-election in this area this year, after Gorton and Denton; The Greens won after Labor blocked Mr Burnham’s candidacy.

When the current prime minister announced he wanted to return to Westminster, the prospect of Labor losing control of Manchester was used as an argument to keep him in office.

When the election was announced many bookmakers pegged Reform as the early favourites, but polls now show Labor will retain the mayoralty with relative ease as Nigel Farage’s party and the Greens battle for second place.

Prof Tonge believes this is entirely down to the change in Number 10.

He said that if Sir Keir were still leader of the Labor Party and Mr Burnham was not on the ballot, this election would be “a very close fight and it would be very difficult for Labor to hold on”.

“In the Gorton and Denton by-elections people were clearly looking for an alternative to Labour.

“But with Burnham everything has changed. People are no longer looking for an alternative to Labor; they are prepared to support Labor across Manchester, at least for now.”

“Initially, the bookmakers mispriced it in my opinion, although I understand why Reform was very much among the favourites.

“But once it became clear that Burnham would be prime minister, the spillover effects of a Burnham premiership meant that Labor was in charge for now.”

The latest YouGov poll predicts Labor candidate Bev Craig will beat Reform’s Sian Astley by 62 per cent to 38 per cent in the second round of this election, which will use the supplementary voting system as in 2017 and 2021.

But this will be the first time the Greater Manchester mayoral election has gone to a second round.

Prof Tonge said Mr Burnham had easily won all three mayoral elections and although it was unlikely to be that easy for Ms Craig, running for what is now her own party would help her achieve victory.

“The ‘Burnham effect’ overshadows this whole struggle and overshadows all other factors,” he explained.

“Labour is enjoying its honeymoon period, Burnham is immune from scrutiny and a triumphant Labor conference is looming in Liverpool.

“There will be a victory lap for Burnham until late autumn and Bev Craig will be running that victory lap with her across Greater Manchester.”

Ms Craig has been leader of Manchester city council since 2021 and represents Burnage ward, where you’ll find the childhood home of the Gallagher brothers in Oasis.

He cannot claim to have Mr Burnham’s profile but has worked closely with him as council leader and economics and business member of the combined authority. “It’s almost like he’s under Burnham’s tutelage,” Prof Tonge said.

The election brand borrows the ‘For Us’ style that Mr Burnham used at Makerfield, and the policy proposal is a combination of continuity and new Burnham-like commitments such as free bus tickets for children aged 11 to 16.

With Labor likely to win, it remains to be seen whether a prime minister who has long been beating the drum for devolution can make his mayoral succession stronger than ever.

“Burnham had the most powers (of mayors in the North) and used them to the maximum,” Prof Tonge said.

“The question now is how much more power he will leave to Bev Craig and others – there is always the risk of a poacher-turned-gamekeeper.

“Early in his political life, as health secretary, Burnham was not pro-devolution because he feared the NHS would not be uniform.

“Then as mayor he became very pro-devolution. Once you become prime minister, there is always a small risk that you become centralist again.

“He talks a great game about decentralizing powers, and that will be hard to give up, but the risk remains: Everyone is a great delegator when taking powers, but will you remain so when you inherit them?”