AI expert warns artificial intelligence may eliminate jobs now

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

That’s the message fueling the world of media technology when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI).

This article is being written, no matter what, by a fallible human being, on a worn-out keyboard, without any technological assistance.

It’s extremely rare that once in a blue moon, I read an article that completely changes my perspective on a topic.

Like most people, I have viewed the rise of artificial intelligence with concern, skepticism, and bewilderment.

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It’s fun to create visuals in ChatGPT, for example, and I see some people using it for overdrive research. But then you hear anecdotes about AI screwing up math problems or spewing out things that aren’t entirely true.

Of course, we’ve all seen warnings that this fast-growing technology would cost some people their jobs, but I assumed it would mainly be in Silicon Valley. The era of air travel did not eliminate passenger trains or buses, but it opened the curtain on the horse-drawn carriage business.

But now it’s coming Matt ShumanHe works in the field of artificial intelligence and does not just participate in prediction sweepstakes. It tells us what’s going on right now.

Last year, he says: “New techniques for building these models led to much faster progress. And then it got faster. And then it got faster again. Each new model wasn’t just better than the last… it was better by a wider margin, and the time between new models being released was shorter. I was using AI more and more, going back and forth with it less and less, watching it handle things that I used to think required my expertise.”

On February 5, two major companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, launched new models that Shuman likens to “the moment when you realize the water has risen around you and now it’s up to your chest.”

Bingo: “I’m no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job. I explain in plain English what I want to do, and it just…emerges. It’s not a rough draft that I need to fix. It’s the finished thing. I tell the AI ​​what I want, step away from my computer for four hours, and come back to see the job done. It’s done well, better than I could have done it myself, with no corrections needed. A few months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding, doing. Now I just announce the result and leave.”

Wait, there’s more. The new GPT model “wasn’t just following my instructions. It was making intelligent decisions. For the first time, it had something like judgment. Like taste. That inexplicable sense of knowing what the right decision was that people always said AI would never have. This model has that, or something so close that the distinction no longer matters.”

This goes far beyond the geeky world of tech enthusiasts, in case you feel immune. “Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. People building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I’ve seen in just the last few months, I think ‘less’ is more likely.”

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My immediate reaction was: I’ll be fine because no super-smart robot can talk about the news on TV or podcasts with the same attitude and enthusiasm as me. Then I remember, even as a writer, news organizations are increasingly relying on AI.

What about musicians who add soul to their rock and roll or bop to their pop? The most popular AI singer is Xania Monet. Some fans were stunned to discover that it wasn’t real, even though it was created by a real poet named Telisha “Nikki” Jones, and most listeners didn’t care. In fact, “Xania” now has a multimillion-dollar recording deal.

Another thought-provoking thought: “Dario Amodei, arguably the most security-focused CEO in the AI ​​industry, has publicly predicted that AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.”

Sip.

Experts predict that AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years. This statistic comes at a time when concerns about job security are increasing around technology. (Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

This really hit the media echo chamber, echoing from Axios to the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal, among others.

The fact that Matt Shuman delivers this in a measured tone, rather than with a falling-from-the-sky scream, adds to his credibility.

anthropicClaude published a study defending the Opus model “against attempts to independently exploit, manipulate, or tamper with a company’s operations in ways that increase the risk of future catastrophic outcomes.”

The report added: “We do not believe that he has dangerous and consistent targets that would increase the risk of sabotage, or that his deceptive abilities have risen to a level that would invalidate our evidence.”

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Meanwhile, National Review “doomsaying“

First, “most predictions predict that AI will be a top-down disruption rather than a bottom-up phenomenon.”

Second, writes Noah Rothman, “there is almost no room in discourse for unintended consequences that do not end in disaster. After all, humility and common sense do not go viral.”

What about its positive impact?

Concerns about artificial intelligence have led to the rise of “catastrophism.” But experts say the “humility and common sense” in the AI ​​discourse “have not gone viral.” (iStock)

“Rather than destroying entire industries, it is equally possible for workers displaced by AI to remain in the industries in which they are currently employed.

It is counterintuitive to assume that an industry growing as fast as AI will not need data scientists, research analysts, expert engineers, or even support and administrative staff. Additionally, sectors such as healthcare, agriculture and emerging industries will need as much human talent as they currently employ, if not more.”

The conservative magazine is also disturbed that “participants in this debate have come to assume that big government is the only solution to the disruptive potential of AI, regardless of its scale.”

Well, choose whatever you want.

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If artificial intelligence, which can now code well enough to reproduce itself, does not eliminate millions of jobs, or if society finds ways to adapt to it, we can all breathe a human sigh of relief.

And if AI is as disruptive as Shuman’s alarming article already suggests, we can’t say we weren’t warned; But maybe we can use it to do our work for us while we work on three-hour lunches, three days a week.

I’m agnostic at this point, except to say it’s going to be a wild ride.