Hantavirus ‘as contagious as Covid’ – date to know if it has spread | UK | News
Scientists warn that May 19 may be a critical date in the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak; This is the point at which so-called “third generation” cases may begin to emerge among people who were in contact with passengers who left the ship early.
The virus has not yet been detected in anyone who was not on the stricken ship, but because of an incubation period that lasts weeks, health officials cannot rule out silent spread among the three dozen people who left the ship before the danger became apparent.
American physician-scientist Dr. Steven Quay crunched the numbers on the timeline of the outbreak and found that people in the second wave of infections – people who fell ill after contact with patient zero, 70-year-old Leo Schilperoord – took an average of 22 days to develop symptoms. If the same three-week period applies to the next chain of transmission, third-generation cases could begin to emerge on or around May 19.
“We currently have 10 cases of hantavirus, one apparent patient zero, and nine human-to-human cases,” he said. “May 19 is a good date to watch… If cases continue beyond that point, there will likely be second-generation to third-generation cases.”
Historical data from outbreaks in the Andes Mountains of Argentina reveal the typical window for symptoms occurring 22 to 28 days after exposure.
Who left the MV Hondius before the outbreak was detected?
Twenty-nine passengers abandoned the ship at Saint Helena before the outbreak was detected. Among them was 69-year-old Miriam Schilperoord, the wife of patient zero. When he reached South Africa, he was too ill to board the KLM flight and later died.
The flight attendant, who was initially thought to have contracted the virus from Ms Schilperoord, was told everything was fine. Separately, a British national who left the ship in the South Atlantic region of Tristan da Cunh is also under investigation as a suspicious case.
All 30 people who left before the danger were spotted and are likely to have encountered hundreds of others in the weeks since.
Can hantavirus be transmitted from person to person?
The Telegraph reports that the scientific consensus is moving towards person-to-person transmission through bodily fluids; However, experts emphasize that the general public faces minimal risk given that spread requires constant close contact.
Passengers were given detailed contact tracing questionnaires covering a wide range of potential exposure scenarios, from sexual activity and shared sleeping arrangements to shared bathroom use, smoking, vaping and toothbrushes, and close proximity with infected individuals lasting more than an hour.
But concerns are growing that the Andean strain may be more contagious than previously believed. Harvard professor Joseph Allen explained that a doctor aboard the MV Hondius expressed concern that many of those infected had not had meaningful close contact with patient zero, but merely shared the same dining or classroom areas.
Evidence of a previous outbreak in Chubut Province is particularly worrying; One person reportedly contracted the virus after a brief exchange with a symptomatic person at a social event. Many other partygoers also contracted the infection while sitting at separate tables, and two hospital patients caught the disease simply by being in rooms next to infected people.
How contagious is the Andean strain of hantavirus?
Two people evacuated this week (a French citizen and an American) tested positive, bringing the total number of suspected cases to 10. If all of them were infected by zero patients, the reproduction number of the virus increases to nine; This means that each carrier transmits the disease to an average of nine people.
If true, this puts the new outbreak on par with the Omicron strain of Covid; But scientists warn that the confined conditions of the ship would significantly increase transmission beyond anything possible in an open environment.
The emerging picture points to a virus that spreads more easily than scientists initially assumed; an extremely worrying finding, considering how many people the ship passengers will have encountered since disembarking.
