Hardliners in Iran smell weakness. They now know where the West is most vulnerable… and have no reason to hold back. I fear something has started that cannot be stopped: MARK ALMOND

Yesterday’s post on Truth Social, declaring in bold letters that Donald Trump had engaged in “very good and productive talks” with Iran, came as more of a shock than a surprise to friend and foe alike.

This meant that the US President postponed his threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure until at least Friday, even though the vital Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard.

It’s not that hard to see the reasons for Trump’s change of heart, including the decline in stock markets and pressure from US allies in the Gulf.

Hopes that the destructive tit-for-tat war of sabotage between America, Israel and Iran might be put on hold have brought particular relief in East Asia.

Shrinking markets in Japan, South Korea and Singapore threatened a worldwide recession that would include America.

Domestically, major donors to the Republican Party are pressuring the President to find a way out of the conflict.

Republican candidates running in November’s midterm elections are desperate for Trump to ‘declare peace’ and provide some semblance of normalcy before voters turn on them.

While Trump’s initial response to Iran’s blockade of energy exports from the region was optimistic – the US is self-sufficient in oil, so why worry? – It turns out that American farmers are dependent on imports of fertilizer (made with hydrocarbons) from the Gulf.

Meanwhile, American businesses and banks are panicking to see their international trading partners threatened with economic recession.

It was Trump himself who let the cat out of the bag. Discussing his secret Iran ‘talks’ with journalists he said: ‘I want as much oil as possible. I want the system to be lubricated.’

Affordable energy is a key vulnerability for America and its allies. Without it, there would be no Western economy, no West. And Iranians now know this for sure.

So any hope of lasting peace must be tempered. To begin with, it is difficult to understand how Trump’s demands could be accepted in Tehran. The president wants the Iranians to give up their missiles, abandon their nuclear enrichment program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to energy exports.

Iran’s conservatives, indifferent to the immense suffering of their own civilians, smell weakness. They know full well that what caused the US President to change his mind was Iran’s ability to stifle exports of oil, gas and fertilizer from the region—resources that account for about 20 percent of the world’s daily needs.

Iranian media is praising – and with some justification – that Trump winked first.

Iran’s conservatives hope that rising fuel prices will isolate America from key allies such as Japan, South Korea and the Europeans, and that their strategy will succeed. The mullahs now have little incentive to retreat.

Moreover, as Trump admitted, it is no longer clear who is responsible in Iran, which is a large region the size of Western Europe.

“It’s a bit difficult, we destroyed everyone,” he said yesterday. ‘We could not hear from the Religious Leader. ‘We don’t know if he’s alive or not.’ How to make a deal with an unknown, invisible negotiation partner? Who exactly is Trump talking to?

Iranians don’t say anything to anyone; because the ‘talks’ are a figment of his imagination.

Even if the president reached an agreement with, say, Tehran’s foreign minister or the speaker of the parliament, the command structure is so decentralized that it is unlikely that either would prevent militant Revolutionary Guard commanders from continuing to fire missiles and drones.

Meanwhile, regime change seems to be completely off the agenda.

Iran hardliners like the new Supreme Leader (center) hope rising fuel prices will alienate America from key allies like Japan, South Korea and the Europeans

It has been less than four weeks since Israel and America saw overthrowing the Islamic Republic and installing a pro-Western, perhaps even democratic, regime as the key to long-term peace. But today Trump is offering to co-manage the Strait of Hormuz with an ayatollah, so anxious is he that he can stop the economic carnage.

Could Trump’s deeply personal approach to diplomacy lead to a dramatic summit meeting with the new Supreme Leader?

The president met with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un three times, breaking a diplomatic taboo in the process. Trump said he could even dream of shaking hands to reach an agreement in Tehran during his last election campaign, when he was the ‘peace candidate’. However, although their meetings in North Korea lowered the temperature between Washington and Pyongyang, they did not stop Kim’s nuclear buildup.

It is also unlikely that the surviving members of the Iranian regime will welcome the man who allowed the death of the new Ayatollah Khamenei’s father, mother, wife and other relatives. Iran’s wounds will be fresh for a while.

Do not forget that America and Iran are not the only states participating in this war.

While both Tehran and Washington welcome the end of this horrific inter-conflict, it will be harder to convince Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, whose air force played such a key role in the attacks.

The Jewish state feels that it is in mortal danger from the Islamic Republic and its slogans of ‘death to Israel’. Netanyahu has no intention of stopping the raids until the mullahs are crushed, or at least completely lose their ability to benefit from nuclear technology. Neither outcome seems likely in the short term.

Israel is also at war in northern Lebanon, where Iran’s proxy Hezbollah is struggling to survive. Even if Netanyahu is forced to agree to a ceasefire with Iran, he remains determined to completely destroy the Shiite rebels and is sending troops to southern Lebanon.

The two conflicts (Iran and Lebanon) are so inextricably linked that they are essentially the same. Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard are so intertwined (many have fought shoulder to shoulder) that the ongoing assault on southern Lebanon is seen by the mullahs as an attack on Iran itself.

Yes, an unstable ceasefire in the region will be better than an all-out war – for as long as it lasts. As soon as Trump raised the possibility of an end to hostilities, oil prices fell.

But a few days without missiles will be nothing more than a pause for breath. Even if Trump makes a miraculous deal – and miracles are insufficient – it seems that this will be followed by an arms race, not disarmament.

Iran’s Islamist hardliners must replenish their arsenal and begin locating enriched uranium now thought to be buried under the rubble of America’s previous ‘bunker-busting’ attacks.

Gulf countries will remain within easy reach of Iran’s missiles and will stockpile their own missiles.

I fear that Trump and Netanyahu have started something they cannot stop. And any ‘peace’ would be merely a ceasefire before bloodshed and crippling economic crises re-emerge.

• Mark Almond is director of the Oxford Crisis Research Institute.