Here are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market in the week ahead
Wall Street is heading into another holiday-shortened trading week after a rough few days for AI trading. The health of the labor market will be a big focus for investors. We have a make-or-break earnings report in our portfolio that will determine whether we hold the stock. The market will also grapple with violence flaring up in the Middle East despite the United States and Iran agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire while negotiating a more permanent end to the four-month conflict. The weekend’s rise comes after tanker traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz increased last week, leading to a further decline in oil prices. US benchmark WTI crude fell below $70 a barrel on Friday for the first time since the war began on February 28. Meanwhile, the international oil standard Brent fell 22% in June, its biggest monthly decline since the Covid-19 outbreak began in March 2020. The dramatic drop in oil prices with the reopening of the strait has helped ease concerns that the Fed may need to raise interest rates multiple times later this year to suppress inflation. The question for investors heading into the trading week is whether the attacks, first carried out by Iran on Thursday and then retaliated by the US, are having an impact. Actions — Affecting traffic and oil prices in the Strait of Hormuz. On social media Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran. Now, let’s take a closer look at what we can expect from upcoming economic data and Nike’s earnings report. 1. Economic updates: Barring any additional developments regarding Iran, this week’s key macroeconomic reports can be divided into employment and manufacturing. On the employment front, we release the May JOLTS (Jobs and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday, followed by payroll processor ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday and the government’s official nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. These two releases are from June. The JOLTS report is notable for providing insight into the tightness of the labor market by tracking job openings, hiring, turnover, layoffs/layoffs, and other reasons for turnover. However, this is the least consequential of the three labor market updates. At this point the data is one month old and we already know the net number of jobs added to the economy in May. The answer we learned on June 5 was a stronger 172,000 figure than expected before any revisions. ADP’s report on Wednesday is an appetizer to what’s to come on Thursday. The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report is the most important report, and we’re getting it a day early this month because the market is closed on Friday for Independence Day. Here we get the net additions to private and public jobs in June, along with a wealth of data such as wage growth, labor force participation and unemployment rates. The United States is a consumer-driven economy, with two-thirds of gross domestic product coming from private consumption. The more people work and the more money they earn, the greater the potential for economic growth. As of Friday, economists forecast adding 87,500 payroll jobs, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% and hourly earnings rising 0.3%, according to FactSet. Wall Street is, of course, always trying to get ahead of everyone else, which is why the ADP jobs survey is the second most important report of the week. Although it can only report private sector payrolls and not come from an official government source, investors are still examining clues about where the labor market stands to help position for the nonfarm report to be released later in the week. Economists are awaiting the ADP report showing 92,500 new jobs as of Friday, according to FactSet. On the manufacturing front, the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly production report is expected to be released on Wednesday, followed by the Census Bureau’s full report on factory orders on Thursday. Of the two, it is ISM’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) that will influence how investors think about the market. The report is referred to as a leading indicator because it provides forward-looking comments from industry sources. In fact, FedEx Freight CEO John Smith said Thursday night that the ISM PMI is something they use to measure demand and manage the business. Factory orders, on the other hand, include precisely what happened in the reported month, making it a lagging indicator. While it has value in tracking the economy over time, the market will always value forward-looking information over hindsight. 2. Nike earnings: Things are mostly calm on the earnings front, as we’re still some way away from banks starting to report and officially kicking off the next earnings season. But Nike’s fourth-quarter financial release on Tuesday night is very important to us. The stock has been crushed this year, and the market isn’t expecting much as shares are trading at their lowest level in a decade. Part of the reason for this is that Nike told the Street last week that excluding a one-time benefit from tariff rebates, “fourth quarter results are expected to be generally in line with previously provided guidance.” This announcement comes alongside news that Pfizer executive David Denton will replace Matthew Friend as CFO. The purpose of offering this commentary is to reassure the market that the CFO change is not related to something bad happening on the ledger. As a result, key drivers for Tuesday night’s report will include sales trends and forward guidance in China, where Nike has really struggled against local competition. As Jim Cramer noted at our June Monthly Meeting, we are running out of patience with this disappointing situation. That’s why this is a make or break quarter; We will either see material progress on the return, or we will have to look for a better place to put our money to work. Analysts polled by LSEG expect Nike to report earnings of 13 cents per share and revenue of $10.86 billion as of Friday. 3. Spin-off complete: Honeywell Aerospace began trading on its own on Monday, capping the long-awaited spin-off from the company now known as Honeywell Technologies (formerly Honeywell International). Even before Honeywell announced in February 2025 that it would spin off its flagship aerospace unit into a standalone company, Jim was urging the company to streamline its sprawling portfolio. A big reason for this was that the conglomerate structure overshadowed Honeywell Aerospace’s true value. Aerospace is an attractive industry, and the breakup of the former General Electric has been incredibly lucrative for shares of GE Aerospace. We are now finally getting pure aviation stocks from Honeywell, which will allow the market to better assess its growth prospects and receive an appropriate valuation. Shareholders will receive one Honeywell Aerospace (ticker: HONA) for every two Honeywell shares (ticker: HON) they own. The club owns 440 shares of HON. We plan to own shares of both Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies, which focuses on commercial and industrial automation. RBC Capital on Friday initiated coverage of Honeywell Aerospace with a buy-equivalent rating and a $300 price target; This represents a 36% increase from where HONA’s issued shares ended Friday. Next week, Monday, June 29 Before the bell: No rating report After the close: AeroVironment (AVAV), Concentrix (CNXC) Tuesday, June 30 FHFA’s home price index at 9 a.m. ET JOLTS Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for May at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: No rating report After the close: Nike (NKE), Constellation Brands (STZ), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday, July 1 at 8:15 a.m. ET ADP private payrolls ISM’s manufacturing PMI Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), UniFirst Corporation (UNF) After the close: Nonfarm payrolls report Thursday, July 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Weekly jobless claims Factory orders at 8:30 a.m. ET 10:00 ET Before the bell: Lindsay Manufacturing (LNN) After the close: No rating reports on Friday, July 3 The U.S. stock market closed for Independence Day celebrations (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NKE and FDXF. See here for a full list of stocks.) 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