Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

How will the federal reserve spend the next few months? In fact, wait until next week before making a guess. The latest job data package, published in the coming days, will help shape the expectations of interest rate deductions of the market in late October and in the second week of December at the Central Bank's last two policy meetings. According to the CME Group Fedwatch vehicle, the market gave a roughly two -third chance that the comparison of the FED that a one -night loan would be half a point lower at the end of the year. Compared to the end of the year, the probability of reducing a single quarter point points is one-third away from a long-term. August Basic Personal Consumption Expenditures did not change the conversation on the price index on the price index. The FED typically adjusts the rates in quarter -point increases, as in September 17, as it was on September 17th, as the ratios typically reduce rates for the first time in nine months. At the meeting, a lightweight majority of the central bankers threw pencils in two sections. However, there are a number of Fed officials who will talk to the public in the coming days and express their speeches. It's far from being set to the stone where the Fed went from here. FED President Jerome Powell stressed that the Central Bank is based on data and does not apply policy on a predetermined course. When the Fed thinks that the bilateral task of the bilateral task is more concerned about inflation about the risks on the labor market side, investors will closely pay attention to the upcoming business numbers. A silent gain schedule strengthens the effect of this data drop on the stock market for only one week. However, both are going for a powerful September and the third quarter that ends next Tuesday. This week, the joker character is the closure of a possible government when government financing ends on Tuesday. According to NBC News, President Donald Trump will meet with the best congress leaders on Monday. Republicans insisted that any negotiations may occur during the allowance process, said they would not compromise a short -term bill. 1. Works, Jobs, Jobs: We watch the usual data group during the work week starting with the shaking on Tuesday morning and starting on Tuesday morning with the publication of the non -Farm report on Friday. The inclusive lens to be displayed: the work market shows additional weakness, does it support more than one feeding deduction argument by the end of the year? Or, considering that inflation is still more than 2% target, does it show any evidence of improvement or flexibility that can reluctantly make the Central Bank more relieved? Tuesday morning brings business opening and worker turnover survey. The Jolts report shows the number of existing jobs in the economy, as well as release and dismissal rates. As a measure of the labor market tension, it carries inferences for wage gains and extension and inflationary prints; When there is much more openings than existing workers, employees receive a higher hand in wage negotiations. The Jolts Report is a month behind the official job report, so we will receive data by looking at August on Tuesday. In July, the number of unemployed people exceeded the number of business opening for the first time since April 2021. On Wednesday, we receive a private sector employment report from the payroll processing company ADP. Economists are waiting to see their business additions in 35,000 US companies in September, which will decrease from 54,000 in August. The June ADP report proved early evidence that the labor market was much weaker than previously believed, but this was easily understood after the major revisions of the hired data of the government accompanying the non -August payroll version. Thursday is looking at the first weekly unemployed claims. The series, which ended on September 20 last week, encouraged a total of 218,000 applications for the first time for unemployment insurance. This is below 235,000 Dow Jones Consensus expectation. In addition, it represented the decrease of 14,000 from the previous report and supported the belief that the increase in the beginning of September to the highest level until the highest level since October 2021. Work data is completed on Surge Friday morning with the report of the non -Farm payrolls. Fed's last monthly employment report before the October 28-29 meeting. Economists who participated in the survey by Factset expects the US economy to add 43,000 labor during the month and the unemployment rate remains fixed by 4.3%since August. In addition, we will also watch the July data, which was initially in the August report, which shows 22,000 business gains, and once the 79,000 modestly revised July data. 2. Bonds, bonds, bonds: Simply put, we will closely monitor the Treasury market in the coming days, hoping to carry out the way for the increase in long -term bond returns. On Thursday, we looked more closely in the world of bonds, because stock investors cannot ignore it - especially if they have shares of companies that need lower mortgage rates to whisk the housing market activities. Umut would accompany the Fed's facilitating policy on the return on returns in long -term treasures, such as a 10 -year note, which greatly affected mortgages. This happened in the fed section. However, after the actual decrease, long -term yields rose further and reiterated what we saw last September that the central bank started the cutting cycle. The 2 -year Treasury return is seen as very sensitive to the comparison policy rate of the FED, which is directly valid for what banks receive each other in loans overnight. It is more complex when it comes to long -term bonds, where inflation and economic growth expectations are demanding as compensation to lock investors' money. Of course, what the Fed does at any time becomes projections for both things. But ultimately, bond traders will form their own minds and give us a bond market that depends on free market dynamics. In other words, we will watch how the bond market reacts to the arduvaz of the economic data of the week against this scattered floor. The above -mentioned job reports occupy the central scene, but there are several important publications worth calling. On Monday morning there is a home sales index association waiting for national real estate agents. Meanwhile, the activities of the Production Management Institute in the manufacturing and service sectors will be published on Wednesdays and Fridays respectively. Finally, on this Thursday, we receive the August factory orders report with updated durable goods orders. The further gaze of last week's durable goods increased by 2.9% after monthly decreases. With all these reports, how the bond market reacts to numbers is as effective as themselves. As we have seen last Thursday, the first unemployed claims than expected were combined with a strong positive revision in the last second quarter GDP, adding upwards on the yields. On Friday, the core PCE was initially pressing the yield, while it was 10 years higher day by day. On Monday, September 29, the week ahead of the week ahead of the house sales index before the bell earnings of ETTER in ETTE: Carnival Corp. 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