Here are the five key takeaways from this week’s Fed meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference following the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, USA, on March 18, 2026.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
1. Too much uncertainty
Although no one expects the Fed to cut interest rates, let alone raise them, at this meeting, the market is always looking for clues about the next step. Neither post-meeting statement, nor economic projection update, nor Powell’s press conference did a lot on that front. The statement saw only minor changes, with the “dot plot” witnessing a moderate dovish shift and Powell using some form of “uncertain” more than a half-dozen times.
2. War is a problem
Predicting the future and modeling policy Powell said it is almost impossible for the United States to be at war with Iran. He repeatedly faced questions about the oil shock, mostly emphasizing how much it muddied the Fed’s waters. “What I really want to emphasize is that no one knows,” he said. “The economic impacts could be larger, smaller, much smaller, or much larger. We don’t know.”
3. Blackouts are coming, but the timing is highly uncertain
The dot plot was still pointing to another outage this year and next year. But the picture resembled a labyrinth rather than a consensus; This underlined how little consensus there was on the Federal Open Market Committee. For example: in 2027One official sees an increase, three see no change from the current level, four expect another cut, six see two more cuts, three predict three cuts, one official sees four cuts, and the final respondent — likely Gov. Stephen Miran — is at five.
4. Powell leaves the door open to stay
At every press conference, Powell is questioned about whether he will remain governor after his term as president ends. Again, he said he hasn’t made up his mind, which of course doesn’t rule out the possibility. But he also said He added that he won’t be going anywhere as long as the investigation into him continues, and will likely remain a “professional president” of sorts until he is confirmed as former Gov. Kevin Warsh’s successor.
5. Powell rejects ‘stagflation’
Don’t use the term “stagflation” around Powell. The president rejected the idea that the U.S. economy is moving forward, with solid growth and a low unemployment rate. It’s the nightmare of the 1970s, despite poor hiring rates and inflation above the Fed’s five-year target. “This is a very difficult situation, but it is unlike anything they faced in the 1970s. [I would] Book ‘stagflation’ for that,” Powell said. “Maybe that’s just me.”
They said this
“The Fed didn’t act today, but it didn’t need to. This is a central bank that’s comfortable waiting, watching and remaining flexible. A projected rate cut tells you it all: The Fed is not rushing, and investors shouldn’t be rushing either.” — Gina Bolvin, President of Bolvin Asset Management Group.
“Although this move was widely expected, it underscores the difficult road ahead for the Fed, which now faces pressure on both sides of its dual mandate to keep employment high and inflation muted. Further complicating matters, Fed leaders often base major decisions on weeks or months of previous data that may not fully capture the magnitude of rapid economic changes, raising the risk that decisions will come too late or be based on outdated assumptions.” — Indeed, economist Felix Aidala.
“Given the interim situation, I expect the committee will try to do as little as possible to avoid ratcheting up the situation before the new Fed chairman takes over.” — Stephen Coltman is head of macro at 21shares.
