Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Manjeswaram set for another photo finish as key players line up

Manjeswaram, one of Kerala’s most closely watched Assembly constituencies with razor-thin margins, is heading for another tight contest in the Assembly elections scheduled for April 9, 2026.

The constituency bordering Karnataka remained a stronghold of the Indian Union Muslim League, largely an alliance partner of the United Democratic Front (UDF). Since the first election in 1957, IUML has maintained its dominance in the constituency, except in 1970 and 1977 (M. Ramappa), 1980 and 1982 (A. Subbarao) and 2006 (CH Kunjambu), when Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidates won from the segment.

The Bharatiya Janata Party started making inroads in the constituency in 1987 when H. Shankara Alva finished second, pushing the LDF to the third position. The party’s position has improved since 2011 when it contested from K. Surendran’s constituency. This segment has been attracting attention across the State since 2016, when Mr. Surendran lost to IUML’s PB Abdul Razak by a narrow margin of 89 votes. Although he did not contest in the 2019 general elections, the party brought Mr. Surendran back into the fray in 2021 as the party’s vote share decreased significantly in the 2019 general elections. The BJP’s decision to field him has once again raised hopes among party supporters as there is a near tie in votes between the two camps in the 2021 Assembly elections.

However, the BJP faces a tough challenge from incumbent MLA and UDF candidate AKM Ashraf, who has significant local support. Recent election trends seem to favor the UDF. In the last local body elections, the UDF secured around 47% vote share in the constituency, widening the gap with the vote share of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which got around 31% votes.

The constituency consists of eight panchayats: Enmakaje, Kumbla, Mangalpady, Manjeswaram, Meenja, Paivalike, Puthige and Vorkady. Both UDF and NDA have already started election preparations in the constituency. While the LDF does not appear to have a strong winning advantage in the constituency, its vote share is likely to play a decisive role in determining the outcome.

The LDF has fielded Communist Party of India (Marxist) district secretariat member KR Jayanandan in a constituency where even small changes in vote share can be decisive.

SDPI stance

In a bid to regain relevance, the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) had suggested that it would support the LDF if it fielded former vice president of Kasaragod district panchayat Shanavas Padhoor as an Independent candidate. Lacking a positive response from LDF, SDPI is considering fielding its own candidate for the first time in Manjeswaram. Party leaders claim that SDPI has around 7,000 votes in the constituency. The decision marks a departure from the party’s previous strategy of not fielding candidates in the constituency, largely to prevent the BJP from gaining ground. Local SDPI leaders say the move comes in the wake of dissatisfaction among cadres who believe the party’s growth is being constrained by the IUML leadership in the constituency.

In the 2020 local body elections, SDPI won two wards in Manjeswaram grama panchayat and secured a total of 1,860 votes. At the time, he competed in eight wards. He contested from 13 wards in the panchayat in the 2025 local body polls and won two of them. He received a total of 3,617 votes, nearly doubling his vote share; this reflects a growing voting base but limited electoral success.

New developments began to complicate the political arithmetic in the constituency.

Konkani Christians

A section of the Konkani Latin Christian community mooted the idea of ​​fielding an Independent candidate, citing the failure of successive governments led by the UDF and LDF to recognize themselves as Latin Catholics due to reservation advantages. According to leaders of the Konkani Latin Christian Association, around 7,000 members of the community live in Manjeswaram. Unlike other Latin Catholics in Kerala, they are yet to receive Other Backward Classes status and the associated 4% reservation in government jobs and educational institutions. As debate continues within the community, opinions remain divided over whether participating in the election would benefit their cause.

But with smaller groups such as the SDPI, Independent candidates and sections of the Konkani Christian community signaling an independent push, their votes could be decisive in a constituency where margins of victory have traditionally been narrow. Any fragmentation in votes could significantly impact the outcome of the election, which is expected to be one of Kerala’s closest electoral battles.