Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2025 — in one chart
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Inflation remained constant in July, because the price for staples such as food and gasoline helped balance price increases for consumers.
However, Trump said that there are anxious signs under the surface, including evidence that management policies cause inflation for certain goods and services. He said that these effects would probably be more evident later this year.
“Tariff and immigration policy fingerprints are on the entire report,” Moody’s chief economist, Moody’s chief economist. He said.
“Tariff and migratory effects do not scream us, but they are definitely talking very loudly and they will begin to shout for the next few months.” He said.
. Consumer Price Index The Office of the Statistics reported on Tuesday, 2.7% in July, compared to the previous month compared to a year ago and increased less than expected.
CPI is a widely used inflation measure that follows how fast or fell for prices from haircuts to coffee, clothing and concert tickets.
According to CPI data, in July, grocery and gasoline prices decreased from June to 0.1% and 2.2% – or 2.2%.
Economists like to look at inflation data that eliminates energy and food prices that can be variable from month to month.
This so -called basic CPI is increasing in recent months: since July 2024, it has increased by 3.1% in July 2025. This rose from a speed of 2.9% annually in June, and since February, the fastest annual ratio for core CPI.
“[W]Oxford Economics, US chief economist Michael Pearce, tariffs are bleeding better on consumer prices, we hope that by the end of the year, we hope it will rise to a 3.8% summit by the end of the year.
Inflation is the most prominent for consumer goods
Tariffs are a tax given to imports paid by US companies importing good or service.
Economists, enterprises at least partially transfer these higher costs to consumers, he said. Yale University Budget Laboratory predictions An average household will lose $ 2,400 in the short term as a result of all the tariffs of the Trump administration as of August 6.
He said that the tariff effects are most prominent for goods prices such as home furniture and clothes.
According to CPI data, inflation has increased by 0.2% for all core commodities that have produced food and energy commodities in each of the last two months. In more typical times, he said that the prices of goods are usually flat or decreased.
“They are on the rise, a clear proof of the tariff effect.” He said.
According to CPI data, household furniture prices increased by 0.7% monthly in July. Clothing prices were quieter 0.1%and 0.2%toys.
Not ‘one monthly event’
On an annual basis, in July, core commodity inflation increased by 1.2%, More than two years.
Pearce, “There are open signs in which a number of price of goods move higher, pushing core goods inflation for more than two years, but some large scheduled products, including cars and large tools, have not yet had a lot of effect.”
Stephen Miran, President of the White House Economic Consultants Council, said that CNBC’s “Squawk on the street” on Tuesday shows that CPI data fueled higher consumer prices, “no evidence”.
“He just didn’t explode,” Miran said.
Economists said that the full effect of tariffs is not possible for several months.
“This is not a one -month event,” said Sarah House, the senior economist of Wells Fargo Economics. “Businesses wait to see where these tariffs settled for months will be dragged for months.”
The authority can gradually test the price sensitivity of consumers at once. Economists said that companies may be selling an old inventory that is not subject to import duties.
“This was a very dynamic time for trade negotiations … But you know, a way far from seeing where the things settled.” in question last month.
In addition, the Trump management policy on migration, limiting the supply of immigrant labor in certain sectors of the economy, and pressing upwards on inflation.
This is mostly in personal care services – in categories such as haircuts, dry cleaning and pet services) that he employed a large number of immigrants. Less immigrants working in these sectors limit the supply of labor and said that the enterprises are pressing upwards on the wages paid to attract workers.
