Grocery prices to remain high despite Trump tariff changes

President Donald Trump announced on November 14 that his administration was rolling back certain tariffs on products, including: CoffeeWhile beef, cocoa and bananas are facing blowback due to high grocery prices. However, this does not mean that prices will drop anytime soon.

According to supply chain management data and history, it will take time for consumer prices to ease.

The reason: inventories.

Food and commodities whose prices increased were purchased at higher tariffs, imported and stored in warehouses.

“Consumers haven’t really seen the big impact of any inflation yet because they’re in the ‘middle mile,’ also known as warehouses and distribution centers,” said Zachary Rogers, lead author of the Logistics Executives Index and an assistant professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University.

Retailers and logistics experts have already warned that operating margins are being hurt.

Rogers said inflation will be felt when these products hit store shelves.

Now these products are hitting store shelves and retailers must sell at higher prices to recoup the costs.

““Supply chains don’t react that quickly to pricing actions, whether it’s the president or organic fluctuations in market conditions,” said Phil Kafarakis, chief executive of food industry association IFMA.

Due to supply chain pressures from the Covid pandemic, including the closure of the Suez Canal by Evergiven, it takes about six months for prices to rise and another six months to fall once disruptions are resolved.

The combination of supply chain pressures and rising logistics prices contributed to “transient inflation,” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

“It will take a long time for tariff-induced inflation to become clear,” Powell said at the July Fed interest rate decision press conference.

The rollbacked tariffs are what the White House describes as “reciprocal” tariffs.

“Reducing price increases due to tariffs by 10 percent to 40 percent will only improve the long-term margins of the middlemen who produce, harvest, transport, market and sell the food to consumers,” Kafarakis said.

“The effects of this executive order will not be felt by consumers for a long time,” he said.

“We may see some relief in tomatoes and strawberries in the spring,” he said.

Kafarakis said consumers may see some products, such as coffee and cheese, go on sale to attract consumer attention and increase foot traffic, but “for a limited time or in limited quantities.”

Brazil is the leading importer of coffee to the United States by volume, providing 30% of the U.S. coffee supply. The country’s tariff was rolled back by 10%, and the existing International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff remained at 40%.

Kafarakis said lower tariff expectations on certain food categories would be beneficial to the restaurant industry. The price reduction will help offset the economic difficulties they face due to consumer demand.

“But unfortunately consumers will continue to struggle with high prices,” he said.

“The restaurant industry will work to increase traffic,” he said. “We will see promotions and discounts on some products.”

Economists warn that even after stocks are depleted and replenished, there is no guarantee that prices will return to previous low levels.

“I’ve heard about a lot of companies in Q3 earnings reports still making price adjustments (aka increasing prices) as they manage higher cost structures caused by tariffs,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at OnePoint Wealth Advisers.

“Even if the President loses the ability to use IEEPA for broad tariff policy, companies will remain highly alert that regional tariffs may be introduced instead,” Boockvar said.

Trump also exempted imports of cocoa and select beef from high taxes.

Cocoa stocks are priced high due to a combination of tariffs and smaller crop sizes due to drought.

Beef prices are also high for a variety of reasons, not just because of tariffs.

Brazilian beef is now subject to a 40% tariff due to IEEPA tariffs. Before Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs, Brazil was the largest supplier of beef to the US

The 10% duty on beef imports from Australia, Argentina and Uruguay has been abolished, as has the 15% duty on beef imports from New Zealand.

“I think the most notable have been the tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian beef, among others,” Boockvar said.

“It is politically easy to impose tariffs on foreign competitors to defend domestic producers, but the consumer often pays the price,” he said. “Demand is decreasing, they are eating chicken instead, and domestic producers are not doing any better.”

Other issues continue to weigh on beef prices, including the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 74 years and a parasitic ringworm outbreak in Mexico that resulted in a U.S. ban on all Mexican beef.

The ripple effects of other tariffs are another reason why overall food inflation did not immediately decrease with these tariff rollbacks.

Increase in section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs increased from 25% to 50%, increased canned goods and machinery prices.

For example, NielsenIQ data on prices of Thanksgiving food items shows a jump in the average unit price for canned cranberry sauce from $2.02 in November 2024 to $2.52 in October 2025. Aluminum used in box making is subject to taxes under tariff 232.

Like retailers Walmart, AimAldi and Kroger are promoting the affordable aspect of their Thanksgiving meal packages.

People with knowledge of Walmart’s food strategy and makeover told CNBC that this year’s bundle includes 30% fewer items and has replaced some brand-name items with its own private label products to keep costs lower.

CNBC asked NielsenIQ to examine the prices of popular Thanksgiving items included in holiday meal packages: Walmart.

Nearly half of the 20 items included in Thanksgiving entrees had higher prices and lower sales between Oct. 6 and Nov. 1 compared to the same period in 2024, the data shows.

There’s cream of mushroom soup, as well as canned cranberry sauce.

Pecan pies are up 15%.

Turkey prices have also increased.

The U.S. turkey flock has shrunk to its lowest size in nearly 40 years. highly pathogenic bird fluaccording to American Farm Bureau Federation.

Some imported fertilizers have faced double-digit tariffs that increase the cost of growing crops needed to produce animal feed.

Tariff rollback information note The White House said Friday that some fertilizers will no longer be subject to tariffs.