Hormuz tanker traffic falls after Iran attacks trigger fighting with U.S.
Oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed after Iranian attacks on three commercial ships this week brought the Persian Gulf to the brink of a renewed war.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at business intelligence firm Kpler, said 13 tankers crossed Hormuz on Wednesday, compared with an average of 33 tankers per day the previous week. Smith said the ships either followed the route controlled by Iran or turned off their transponders to avoid pursuit.
Oil prices have risen more than 6 percent this week as investors worry that crude oil exports via Hormuz could fall again as the United States and Iran fight for control of the strategic sea route.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over after Tehran attacked three tankers passing through Hormuz earlier this week. The US launched two rounds of airstrikes on Iran and reimposed oil sanctions in retaliation for the tanker attacks.
“The collapse of the ceasefire framework, the reimposition of Iranian oil sanctions, and the scale of kinetic US action inside Iran represent the most significant escalation of the conflict since its opening phase,” naval intelligence firm Windward told clients in a note on Wednesday.
But the oil market is not pricing in a complete closure of the strait, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said in a note to clients on Thursday.
“It appears to be pricing in a new normal, where periods of conflict (perhaps we could call them missile conflicts) occur between periods of relative calm (or uneasiness) that allow tankers to pass,” Lipow said.
Oil exports through Hormuz recovered after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the strait on June 17. Tehran promised safe passage for ships and agreed not to charge transit fees for 60 days under the interim agreement with the United States
However, Tehran demanded that the ships use the northern route under its control to enjoy safe passage. It attacked ships using the southern route along the Omani coast, which was protected by the US Navy.
“This is part of Iran’s sporadic targeted campaign to destabilize the southern corridor and send a message to Gulf State producers who are not sending their oil through this northern corridor,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior naval intelligence analyst at Windward.
Iran closed Hormuz, threatening commercial shipping, after the United States and Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes that killed president Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. The closure of the strait lasted for months, triggering the largest supply disruption in history.
