How al-Qaida-linked jihadist group JNIM is bringing Mali to its knees | Mali

Armed groups of JNIM fighters have blocked key routes used by fuel tankers, disrupting supply lines to the capital Bamako and other parts of Mali.

Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group Jamaat Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has been slowly closing in on Mali’s capital, Bamako, with increasing attacks, including on army-backed convoys, in recent weeks.

If the city falls, the West African country will move towards becoming an Islamist republic with a strict interpretation of sharia law.

This would fulfill a jihadist mission that follows in the footsteps of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan or Syria, where former rebel Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known by his pseudonym Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, is now head of state. JNIM already enforces dress codes and fines through the courts in areas under its control; These rules do not meet fair trial standards, as Human Rights Watch noted in a 2024 report.

On Tuesday, the US state department issued its second advisory to its citizens in Mali in a week, urging all US citizens to “depart immediately using commercial aviation”, citing infrastructure problems and “the unpredictability of flights from Bamako”. [the capital] security situation.” On Wednesday, Australia, Germany and Italy also called on their citizens to leave the country as soon as possible.

Observers inside and outside Mali say events could escalate faster and that the US warnings are the latest indication that the country is on the verge of a third successful coup in five years and the sixth since gaining independence from France in September 1960.

A former Malian minister now living in exile told the Guardian anonymously: “I don’t want to sound too dramatic, but the country is collapsing before our eyes.” “I wouldn’t be surprised if another rollover happens in the next few days.

“There will be a coup in the Sahel before December 31,” the former official continued. “Mali will go first and then you will have the same domino effect that we saw between 2020 and 2023, all these countries will fall one after another.”

Mali has been grappling with fuel shortages for two weeks due to JNIM blockades targeting trucks from neighboring Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Senegal. Drivers and soldiers were either kidnapped or killed; or in some cases both.

Landlocked Mali relies mostly on imports to keep its stuttering economy afloat. Due to the lack of fuel trucks, life has come to a standstill in most of Bamako.

Long queues at gas stations are now common, and there is no electricity in many parts of the city. Shops and supermarkets are closed as many people stay at home, lack transportation, and food prices continue to rise. Schools were also temporarily closed until November 9.

Analysts such as Ulf Laessing, head of German think tank Konrad’s Bamako-based Sahel program The Adenauer Foundation says next week could be crucial for the life of the current junta.

“I think next week will be really bad, because then the current stocks that everyone is living on will be depleted,” he said. “It’s hard to see a way out. It’s hard to see how they can source capital in sufficient quantities.”

Many analysts interviewed by the Guardian refused to comment on the matter, saying the regime’s sensitivity to comments perceived to be unfavorable to it was at an all-time high.

An Islamic state

“So far, no one is demonstrating against the government because I think they know that if they topple this government, the next one will be Islamist, so that could strengthen the regime’s resolve a little bit,” Laessing said.

In June 2020, civil society, religious groups and opposition parties formed a protest coalition known as the 5 June Movement – ​​Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP), which led large-scale protests against the democratically elected president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, citing corruption and deteriorating security.

Among the most prominent figures of the M5-RFP was Mahmoud Dicko, an influential and controversial imam who first came to national attention for his role in the coup of then-president Moussa Traoré in 1991. The clergy’s mobilization played a key role in causing the collapse of Keïta’s government.

Keïta said at a meeting where regional bloc Ecowas, or Economic Community of West African States, mediated between the state and M5-RFP. I dropped something shocking. “I was part of the meeting when he told Ecowas leaders that Imam Dicko wanted Mali to become an Islamic country under sharia law,” the former minister said. “When he said that, all hell broke loose.”

Within two months, soldiers led by a young captain, Assimi Goita, took over the government and replaced the parliament with the National Transitional Council (NTC). The second coup within a year led to Goïta being sworn in as president.

However, the junta’s promises were mostly not fulfilled. The NTC, led by Colonel Malick Diaw, planned to hold elections in February 2022 but has repeatedly postponed them.

Meanwhile, the death toll from the rebellion rose rapidly; Since 2012, the total has exceeded 17,700, with more than two-thirds of that occurring after 2020. data From the African Center for Strategic Studies. JNIM, whose finances are bolstered by high-profile ransoms paid for kidnappers including Emiratis, is expanding its operations to Benin and Nigeria on the west African coast.

Human rights groups also alleged that Mali’s operations with pro-junta militias consisting of Wagner mercenaries and hunter militias were rife with abuses.

Is it the end of the road?

The isolation of the junta appears almost complete.

It signed a military aid agreement with the regimes of Burkina Faso and Niger, but the impact of this is not yet known. Mali, which has cut off its relations with Ecowas, cannot benefit from its military resources.

In recent years, some foreign diplomatic missions have also reduced their presence, just as the junta has expelled staff from other factions amid worsening relations with the West.

As a result, there are reports of growing disillusionment within the army’s ranks; This shows that there were internal tensions among the five colonels who organized the first coup. Two of them, Diaw and defense minister Sadio Camara, are being discussed as potential successors to replace Goïta.

Meanwhile, Dicko, who has been in exile in Algeria since 2023 due to his falling out with the government, and He loses his diplomatic passportis expected to return.

“Some JNIM employees want Dicko to come back so they can negotiate with him instead of the Malian government,” the insider said. “This is their ultimate goal, to turn Mali into an Islamic state, and they are very close to that.”