How do votes turn into seats

You need a quota to win a seat in the Tazmanian Assembly Elections. However, in practice, no one does a quota survey. In fact, the latest seats are decided by the distribution of partial quotas and preferences.

Nevertheless, these patterns are not randomly – the parties who make survey on a particular vote share are more likely to win a number of seats, and there is little chance of winning this final seat of the parties with a survey under a certain share of votes. Considering a certain share of votes, some parties are more likely to take place in this vote than others, and these trends have changed over time.

This article is an update for me 2024 PIECESIt was released before this election – this has produced some interesting results that deviate from previous trends.

This first graph draws the number of quotas per party and the number of seats earned from 2006 to 2024.

It should be noted that there are always more quota from the seats – about 30 quotas from 2006 to 2021 and about 40 quota compared to 25 or 35 seats in 2024. The graph shows only labor, liberals, greens and Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) results. In practice, until 2024, the “others” vote was so messy that they had almost no seats (except Kristie Johnston in 2021). But they weren’t a single unit, so it’s not a fair comparison.

There is a very clear relationship between the quotas participating in the survey and the seats gained. Often, parties earn more quota than seat shares, which makes sense that there are more quota than existing seats.

The results of the 2024 are marked with stars and came to the fore. Before 2024, during this period of a party, there was only one case that won more seats than the quotas they were surveying: the worker in 2021 won 8.4 quota and nine seats. However, in 2024, four of these parties destroyed less quota than seat shares. This probably reflects the scattered voting between many other independent independent independents.

The 2024 liberal result was the most effective result for a party in the last 20 years of the Tasmania elections. Liberals only conducted 12.3 quota survey, but won 14 seats.

This next graph does the same, but at every voter level. The equivalent graph was up to three major parties, but now I have added all independent or small party tickets that have accumulated more than one quarter of JLN and one -quarter.

It clearly sees the range of results that can produce a certain number of seats. For example, every ticket seat that destroyed more than 0.7 quota won. Groups of surveying more than 1.5 quota are more likely to win two seats, but this does not always happen.

Sometimes there is a lot of overlapping with voting shares that sometimes choose an extra seat and sometimes not. The patterns of the party also change. Liberal tickets usually needed higher voting for the same number of seats as labor.

Another prominent thing is that the 2024 results (marked as stars) usually have the lowest quota share to produce a particular seat result in the analyzed period. Before the Greens did in Clark in 2024, no party had won two chairs from less than 1.5 elevations.

No Greens ticket failed to win a seat with less than 0.7 (at least since 2006), but Garland, O’byrne, two of the three JLN winners and Johnston 2024. Johnston did in 2021.

The Liberal Party managed to win three seats in Bass and Franklin with a vote that would only choose two members. Interestingly, labor results do not show the same tendency. It did not provide much benefit from the ability to earn seats from the share of votes smaller than expected.

This next graph receives the same data as the first graph, but shows it in a different way. Compares the number of seats earned for each of the three main parties with the number of quota they destroyed.

The workers in 2018 and 2021 achieved much more effective results than other parties, but in 2024, the others are doing much better. Since the area of ​​other parties has grown, the flow of preference that has already benefited from labor seems to have changed in 2024.

For the rest of this article, I would like to examine that they can cause this change. To do this, I look at how many votes each side wins from the other parties during each number of preferences, and how many votes (or leaked) have lost the votes (or leaked) as the candidates are removed from the count.

Candidates were grouped as labor, liberal, greenery, jln and others.

Before 2024, the worker tended to get more votes and to vote less.

I defined the results of 2024 as stars. Worker tickets tended to vote more than the Liberal Party in 2024, but in general, tickets tend to both vote and leak, reflecting the complexity of the complicity of the ballot.

The next graph collects the data according to the party and the election year, indicating that only preferences are won.

In 2024, labor tickets gained less preference, while liberal and greens increased their preferences.

In general, he saw that preferences generally played a larger role in the 2024 elections. The make -up of these preferences has become more favorable for the greens and the liberal party with more conservative preferences and more independent preferences, thus making the system less suitable for Alp.

This is a good reminder that the implementation of selection systems does not permanently prefer one party to another – a change in voting patterns can change whose benefit.

This is an edited version of an article Tallly Room.