How Indian States are following a pro-incumbency trend

THe highlights an interesting point by recently concluding the Bihar Assembly elections; It is stated that Nitish Kumar, who was sworn in as Chief Minister for the 10th time, managed to retain the government even after ruling the state for almost two decades. This shows us the contrast between global and Indian State-level (anti-)task patterns. In many of the world’s major democracies, voters expressed strong opposition to the government.

The defeat of US democrats, UK conservatives, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and South Africa’s African National Congress reflects the willingness of people in these countries to use their elections as a tool to address the government’s perceived performance and demand an alternative in power. Senegal’s election similarly captured youth anger and generations of oppression against elites.

A pro-duty bias

The Indian State Assembly elections held in the last few years indicate a reverse trend. Many governments were re-elected during this period, indicating strong pro-incumbency sentiment. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party government was re-elected in Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra despite heated opposition campaigns. These governments were re-elected by overcoming anti-incumbency because the ruling party supported the election campaign by pushing the rhetoric of stability, ‘double engine ki sarkaar’ (the idea that the Center and the State are run by the same party) for faster development, wealth distribution and strong leadership; This carried the narrative spread by the opposition parties to victory. While the BJP in Gujarat extended its record to a seventh consecutive term, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha parlayed its personal credibility and targeted plans into multi-term mandates. West Bengal’s mandate in 2021 against a highly controversial BJP challenge from Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress underscores pro-incumbency in a polarized contest. These examples may seem to be isolated cases of States coming back to power, of which the recent Bihar Assembly elections were one of them, but since 1952, Indian elections have witnessed pro- and anti-government periods.

history of india

The first few years (1952-1966) were a pro-government period. Almost 85% of the 39 parliamentary elections held during this period were re-elected. However, the periods of 1967-79 and 1980-1988 witnessed both pro-government and anti-government tendencies. Of the 82 parliamentary elections held between 1967-79, 54% of the governments were re-elected, while 46% were eliminated. Similarly, in the 53 parliamentary elections held during 1980-88, 51% were re-elected while 49% were eliminated.

However, the periods 1989-98 and 1999-03 witnessed a very strong anti-government trend. Of the 63 parliamentary elections held between 1989 and 1998, 71% were rejected by the votes of incumbent governments. This trend continued during 1999-03; In 31 parliamentary elections, 61% of incumbent governments were voted out.

This trend changed again in 2004-15, when a mixture of anti-government and pro-government parties was witnessed. During this period, approximately 55 percent of incumbent governments were re-elected, while 45 percent were defeated. The period 2016-2018 saw a strong anti-incumbency trend, with approximately 75% of incumbent governments being defeated. This is understandable because when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government came to power at the Center in 2014, most of the Congress-ruled states had lost in the subsequent State elections.

We are again witnessing a strong pro-government tendency. Many BJP-ruled states have witnessed re-election of governments. It is true that many of these governments were re-elected based on the popularity of their social welfare programmes, but this is also about the general infrastructure improvements that the State and its people have come to benefit from. While welfare politics helped the ruling party mobilize the votes of the poor and lower middle classes, improvements in infrastructure especially helped mobilize the votes of upper middle class voters.

Examples from around the world show how structural pressures, economic tension, social unrest and anti-elite sentiment produce different electoral logics. These tensions on a global scale caused the ruling parties to lose elections through rotation and paved the way for a new party to form the government. But in Indian states, governments have often been re-elected, brokered by strong leader-centered, welfare-oriented mandates that can quell discontent and bring about renewed powers.

Sanjay Kumar is a professor and election analyst. Arindam Kabir is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS. Opinions are personal. It does not reflect the views of the institution.