How John Swinney plans to put his stamp on the SNP as election looms

There is a sure sign that the Scottish National Party is about to meet for its annual conference.

Around this time each year, there is always renewed emphasis on the goal of independence from the party leadership.

And right on cue, SNP leader and First Minister John Swinney published another Scottish government paper this week promising a “fresh start” for Scotland if it became an independent country.

It would be useful for the SNP leadership to show those gathered in Aberdeen for the party’s 91st annual meeting that their core cause has not been forgotten.

In reality, the party is completely stuck on how to create a viable route to Scottish statehood.

This is a source of frustration for many in the SNP and will later lead to a lively debate on independence strategy at the conference.

Whatever the decision, it is unlikely there will be any movement towards independence unless the SNP remains in power at Holyrood.

A year ago there seemed to be serious doubts about this Labor Party comes to power in Westminster He comprehensively defeated the SNP in national elections for the first time in 14 years.

Three things have changed since then.

Swinney has stabilized the SNP, Labor’s popularity has waned and the rise of Reform UK appears to have widened the SNP’s path to an incredible fifth term in office.

John Swinney when took over as first minister He takes over a party in disarray following the successive resignations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf.

It has proven to be a staying power.

It quickly calmed debates about gender identity, the environment and social life. Police investigation into SNP finances This led to the prosecution of the party’s former chief executive, Peter Murrell.

If this was the first phase of his leadership, the second phase was to focus the Scottish government on priorities such as improving public services. In short, trying to make a visible difference for society.

An ally of the Prime Minister sums up this approach as “stop digging, deliver.”

Swinney could stand out cancellation of highest rail faressigns of a decline in child poverty and removal of the two-child limit on access to benefits as examples of progress (whether or not the UK government does the same).

The SNP’s political opponents point out: persistently long waits on the NHS, Cuts to university budgets and the urgent release of prisoners from overcrowded prisons are evidence of failure.

Among other challenges facing whoever is in charge are repeated warnings from fiscal watchdogs that levels of social spending in Scotland are unsustainable.

It also appears that confidence in the Scottish government to work in Scotland’s interests has diminished in recent years. Latest social attitudes survey for 2023.

All of this will feature in the debates before the next election.

Labor insists Scotland can take a “new direction” by unseating the SNP and introducing a Labour-led government with Anas Sarwar as first minister.

Labour’s problem is that its momentum in 2024 won’t last long after Sir Keir Starmer steps into Number 10. The unpopularity of the Prime Minister and the UK government appears to have dragged Scottish Labor down.

Opinion polls show the SNP with a double-digit lead over Labor, with Reform England trailing behind, pushing the Conservatives into fourth place.

The SNP appears far less popular than five years ago, and the rise of Reform UK appears to be splintering support for unionist parties.

This could mean Scottish independence’s main party is still well placed to overcome divided opposition in constituencies across the country and finish as the largest party nationwide.

There’s nothing definitive about these polls, and seven months of campaigning could produce a different outcome.

Note that, contrary to popular expectations, Labor defeated the SNP in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-elections earlier this year.

The Conservative Party hopes their calls for cuts to public spending, regulation and taxation will distinguish them from their left-leaning rivals and help them persuade traditional supporters not to switch to Reform UK.

While Nigel Farage’s party is focused on reducing immigration and further oil and gas exploitation, these are both policy areas outside Holyrood’s control.

One hope for the SNP’s opponents is that they can rally anti-SNP support behind the party that appears best placed to defeat them in each locality. This has had limited success in the past.

With Independence currently more popular than the SNP, part of Swinney’s strategy will be to persuade at least some former SNP voters to stand down.

That will mean a bit more talk of independence, a cause Swinney has been campaigning for since he was 15.

With such political experience, he will feel that for many within and outside the SNP, independence currently looks like a political mirage.

The UK Supreme Court has ruled that any future referendum would need the approval of the UK government, and Sir Keir Starmer has made it clear that he has no intention of allowing the vote while he is in power.

In a major conference debate on Saturday, Swinney will argue that the “only unquestionable path” to another referendum is for the SNP to win an overall majority of seats in next May’s Holyrood election.

This is what persuaded then Prime Minister David Cameron to agree to the 2014 referendum, and the first minister thinks a similar outcome would force the current Prime Minister to back down.

There are also those who think a more radical approach is necessary. The SNP needs to treat the 2026 election as if it were a referendum.

In other words, if parties supporting independence receive more than 50% of the votes on the Holyrood list, this should be considered a “mandate to surrender independence”.

It’s unclear what this means. Want to negotiate with the UK government? Unilaterally declaring independence and daring the UK to block it? Or is it something else?

This is an approach that cannot be considered legitimate for those who advocate the continuation of the union.

The Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK will reject this on the grounds that the election is much more than a single issue of independence.

It’s an argument Swinney’s team expects to win in the conference. Their question is how much? They will want the widest margin possible to be used to prevent their authority from being undermined.

One elected politician advocating the alternative situation predicted the “tiny jewel” of a debate in which the leadership would have to work harder than usual to get what it wants.

Whether the SNP focuses on gaining a majority of votes for all parties supporting independence (including the Greens and Alba) or on securing a majority of Holyrood seats for itself, these are both very high bars to clear.

The SNP also needs to be careful about pushing independence too hard.

While this remains a popular policy with a large minority of voters, it is not necessarily a priority for everyone who supports it.

When asked to name their main concerns in a recent survey, those asked listed the NHS, cost of living and immigration as their top three concerns.

So what else can we expect from this conference?

It seems to me that Swinney is working hard to improve his image not only as a prime minister but also as a potential statesman.

Think of the meetings with Donald Trump both in Scotland and at the White House, his remarks at Holyrood on Ukraine and Gaza, and his upcoming trip to Africa.

I predict there will be some references to Swinney’s international involvement, especially since the newly recognized Palestinian ambassador to the UK is speaking at a conference.

It is worth remembering that Swinney took over as first minister midway through the parliamentary term, secured by a manifesto signed by Nicola Sturgeon.

Yes, they were close. He was his deputy in the government.

But this conference, especially Monday’s keynote, is an opportunity for Swinney to put his own stamp on things.

Expect him to be more clear about who he is and what a Swinney government less beholden to previous promises would try to do. Of course, there will be continuity, but perhaps there will also be some elements of change.

Is this worthy of being described as the third phase of his leadership? Let’s see.